The market fell below 57,000, and the interest rate will be cut in September. What will happen next?
BTC K-line trend Since the rise on August 8, the market has not fallen below 55,600. It recovered the lost ground last night, but it opened the door market again today!
PMI tonight, unemployment rate tomorrow (previous value 4.3, expected 4.2, less than 4.3 is the best, which boosts sentiment and increases the expectation of a rate cut of 25 this month. Currently, the rate cut of 25 in September is 55%, source CME), non-agricultural, and then the 9.10 election debate, let's see Harris and Trump's speech on encryption, and Harris's proposition, whether it can boost BTC sentiment, and then the CPI data next week, the interest rate meeting at the early morning of September 19, which is mixed with the above various influences on market sentiment.
In the past week, the K-line has not broken through 59,900 and stabilized, but has begun to test 55,600. It is also obvious from the urpd data that the upward trend is 58,500, 59,200, 59,900, 60,700, and the downward trend is 55,600. If 55,600 is broken, the next support will be 51,900. Therefore, the data and events mentioned above, if there is a bigger negative impact, and the liquidity is low, it will break 55,600. If the sentiment can be boosted, then it will fluctuate in the range of 55,600-59,900 to 61,000 at most.
As mentioned before, the interest rate cut in September has been confirmed, and it is nothing more than 25 or 50. The probability of 25 is still high at present. Although it is not 63.5%, it is still more than 50%. The closer it gets to this point, especially with the macroeconomic situation in Japan (expectations of another rate hike in Japan), the more market sentiment will jump back and forth, making it difficult to predict. Without a strong sense of the market, you still need to pay attention to the risks.
As for the altcoins, BTC fell slightly before, and the altcoins fell sharply. Based on the rebound of BTC, the altcoins should stop when they are ahead, and don’t be too greedy (5-10 points is enough). For a real reversal, we should still pay attention to the situation after the interest rate cut is implemented.
