On the macroeconomic front, Fed's Daly said that while the Fed would take more aggressive action when the outlook is clear, the situation is not clear enough now. As inflation is falling and economic growth is slowing, the Fed needs to consider lowering interest rates. Currently, CME shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 54%, while the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has risen to 46%. Tomorrow night, the non-farm payrolls data for August will be released. This is the most important data before the rate cut. It can reflect the employment and economic situation and has a great impact on the market, so it needs special attention.
Regarding ETFs, on September 4, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of $37.29 million, and the Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $37.51 million.
Grayscale released its latest report, mentioning that after a slight fluctuation in the financial market in August, the valuation of cryptocurrencies generally declined. Bitcoin performed well, but Ethereum performed poorly in the overall market. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that interest rates may be cut, which may support Bitcoin and other assets that compete with the US dollar, such as gold. The report also mentioned that the uncertainty of Ethereum's expansion strategy, the increase in the capitalization of the stablecoin market, and the discussion of digital privacy are the focus of market attention. Grayscale predicts that if the US labor market remains stable, the price of Bitcoin may retest its historical highs before the end of the year, although the risk of recession remains.
Eigenlayer will start airdropping in the second quarter, and the recipients include ETH holders, Eigen token stakers, and ecosystem partners (such as AVS, LRT, Rollup, RaaS providers, etc.). The snapshot time is August 15, and you can claim it before September 17. All are linearly distributed, with no minimum guarantee; you can claim it directly by staking at Eigenlayer.
Since Eigenlayer has set up VPN identification, manual operation is required when claiming. The operation steps are: right-click the webpage, select "Inspect", enter the "network" tab, delete the "vpn-restricted" part in the URL, and then reopen the webpage. Search for "is-block" in "network", right-click after selecting it and select "Block request URL", and then refresh the page to open the claim page.
Bithumb, the second largest exchange in South Korea, announced the launch of JTO and ETHFI Korean Won markets. Jito (JTL) is the MEV infrastructure on Solana; Ether Fi (ETHFI) is a liquidity re-pledge protocol on Ethereum.
In terms of on-chain data, the unrealized losses of short-term holders have increased slightly, but have not yet reached the bear market level, and are now closer to the period of price volatility in 2019. The MVRV of short-term holders has fallen below the break-even value of 1.0, and is currently similar to August 2023.
In terms of market conditions, the US stock market continued to weaken yesterday, but Bitcoin found strong support in the decline, indicating that there is still demand in the market. Today's demand is generally sustainable, indicating that market liquidity is still not good, and funds are waiting for the clarification of the macro environment. Tomorrow's non-agricultural data is very important. There is no problem with the large-scale structure, and the support strength of 54,000-57,000 is also very strong. Yesterday's test results are valid. The current high-level structure shows a state of accumulation, not selling. The logic of the bull market remains unchanged, and positions continue to be held.
ETH's linkage trend also continues to follow.
As for altcoins, their trends are linked to Bitcoin, but this time when Bitcoin fell, altcoins did not fall sharply, indicating that after experiencing a sharp drop, the overall chip structure of altcoins has improved, and after the price returned to a reasonable range, the supply also decreased, continuing to bottom out.
