A full 34 minutes, 34 minutes after the release of tonight's key manufacturing data, the mainstream media Bloomberg updated the latest interpretation, and its interpretation is relatively pessimistic.

According to Bloomberg, September is the most difficult month in the history of the US stock market. In the history of the US stock market from 1950 to the present, September is also the month with the largest average decline in the S&P and Dow Jones (historical data).

As for tonight's manufacturing data, August manufacturing data has shrunk for five consecutive months, reflecting the accelerated decline in manufacturing and orders. The overall situation is relatively pessimistic. Of course, this is also in line with people's traditional impression of the US manufacturing industry. The key data this week is still employment.

The beginning of the article intuitively shows that near the highest point of the US stock market in August, Wall Street traders have avoided risks (cashed out at high levels).

At present, the market has intuitively responded that the Russell 2000 led the decline by 2.5%, followed by the Nasdaq with a decline of 2.35%. Among the technology giants, Nvidia fell by 7.9%.

The US dollar index remained relatively stable, the 10-year US Treasury bond rose slightly, and the price of long-term bonds rose again due to increased short-term demand.

But what is strange is that international gold followed the decline and currently remains at $2,480. This is something I don’t understand. According to the traditional trend, gold should rise at this time, rather than follow the decline of US stocks.

It is rare for gold to fall with US stocks. Basically, similar things will happen in several periods. It can be distinguished as liquidity shortage, US dollar strengthening, US dollar interest rate hike or policy tightening, and global economic recession. According to the current situation, under the elimination method, the only possibility left may be global economic recession? Uncertain.

The decline of gold always makes me feel as if something is happening, but I didn’t notice it.

During the same period, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September for the CEM swap rate increased to 39%, from about 31% before.