As the saying goes, "markets are born in despair, develop in disagreement, and end in madness."
If I say "there will be a crazy bull market next", I believe many friends will disagree. But if I say "there has been no madness in this cycle so far", there shouldn't be too many doubts, right? Some people think that BTC has risen from 1.6w to 7.3w, which seems to have met the price characteristics of a bull market, so it is understandable that it ends now.
However, to judge whether a cycle has experienced "madness", we cannot just look at the absolute value of the price, but analyze the price performance of each subdivided period. Through this data, we can observe the#BTCprice change rate, continuity, and trigger frequency, so as to grasp which stage is the most "crazy".
The data in green/blue/red in the above figure represent:
A: Green (quarter), the percentage change of BTC price within 90 days;
B: Blue (month): the percentage change of BTC price within 30 days;
C: Red (week): the percentage change of BTC price within 7 days;
The purple line below is the statistical value: that is, for a period of 3 months, when the price of#BTCrises by more than 20% in the past week, month, and quarter at the same time, the statistical value is 1;
The higher the value, the faster the price change rate of#BTCand the higher the trigger frequency, which means that the bull market has entered the "madness".
Let's take a look at the purple statistical value: in the previous bull market cycle, only in the development period, the statistical value is basically below 5; once it enters the accelerated crazy stage, the statistical value during the period is at least above 15; the highest in 2018 is 26, and the highest in 2021 is 19.
In this cycle, from March to May after BTC broke through 70,000 US dollars, the highest statistical value was only 5, which clearly means that this wave of ETF bulls does not meet the performance characteristics of the bull market subversion period in terms of change rate, sustainability, and trigger frequency. I think the overall market sentiment at the moment is neither "desperate" nor "crazy", but just in the "divergence" stage.
Although I can't say that we will definitely see the "peak bull market" next, since we haven't seen "craziness" yet, how can we talk about "ending"?
PS: Oh, by the way, if you see a statistical value above 15, you can consider escaping the top of the cycle~~~~~~
