➜Market analysis
In the new week, the overall BTC daily line is running below the EMA20 daily line of $60,000, and the EMA10 daily line is crossing the EMA20 daily line, which indicates that the short-term and medium-term trend bears have a clear advantage. As long as the price does not return to above $60,000, the retracement trend will not end. We continue to pay attention to the support range of $56,000-58,000. Once the support of $56,000 is lost, the situation will become very pessimistic, and the daily line will test the support range of $50,000-52,000 again.
After the high-level shock, Bitcoin continued to fall over the weekend, and then the pessimistic mood continued to spread. The fear and greed index dropped to 26, a significant drop from last week's 55. Such emotions appeared because everyone was worried about liquidity issues. After ICO and VC, everyone began to embrace the pvp model meme. Then, when the meme performed poorly recently, everyone was even more pessimistic. At the macro level, they were worried about the US economic recession, and at the micro level, they were worried that the industry would not innovate and could not continue to bring growth.
Although panic is spreading, if you look at the whales on the chain, you will know that they are not selling, but continue to buy. Every time there is general fear in the market, it is often accompanied by opportunities.
➜September is an eventful month with many major events:
9.6 Big Non-Farm.
9.10 US presidential debate.
9.11 US CPI in August.
9.18 Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.
9.29 CZ was released from prison.
Before each cycle starts a bull market, it must go through a thorough deleveraging process. The second half of the year will usher in a turning point in the bull market. Hold on to your coins and sit tight.
➜Sectors and targets to focus on in September
1. Optimistic about the $BTC ecosystem, BTC staking, wBTC competitors ($T), inscriptions/runes ($SATS$ORDI), and $RUNE;
2. Uniswap v4 $UNI, which is optimistic about DeFi, is the most important catalyst for the current DeFi ecosystem. ($COW is also making some small moves);
3. The cold reception of Solana ecosystem may give us an opportunity to buy at the bottom. I think $JTO$CLOUD$DRIFT$KMNO are good targets. Let’s see which one can attract market attention.
4. Be cautious when considering RWA targets. $MPL and $CPOOL are two projects worth paying attention to.
5. MakerDAO’s name change provides an opportunity for market speculation, which may also be beneficial to $LQTY;
6. CZ’s release from prison is a good prediction for $BNB;
7. Pendle is moving closer to BTCFi;
► 1/ BTC Ecosystem
The three main things related to the BTC ecosystem are:
- The "market interest in BTC staking" triggered by Bayblon is, to put it bluntly, a nesting doll;
- When wBTC is widely questioned, opportunities for other players:
1) Coinbase launches cbBTC;
2) Former younger brother Threshold tBTC has gained huge room for growth;
3) Cross-chain adoption of Stack sBTC after Satoshi Nakamoto’s upgrade, etc.
P.S. In the future, the competition among various types of packaged BTC will become more and more fierce. The market may pay attention to cross-chain protocols that support native BTC, such as Thorchain RUNE. Also, tBTC operator Threshold proposed to merge with wBTC, but I think it is not realistic.
- Fractal Bitcoin, the Bitcoin extension network, is scheduled to launch the mainnet on September 9. This expected market is buying, which is good for the BRC20 ecosystem, and runes will also receive attention at that time (not directly good).
► 2/ Solana
The most interesting thing about Solana ecosystem is memecoin
The second is the most profitable protocols in the Solana ecosystem, such as
Jito /$JTO
Raydium /$RAY
Jupiter /$JUP
Banana /$BANANA
And some other applications that capture market attention/liquidity:
Operation /$OPERATION
Kamino /$KMNO
Holy /$CLOUD
1. Jito — closely related to the prosperity of the Solana ecosystem;
2. Sanctum - LST liquidity layer. Recently, CEX has entered the $SOL staking market, which is a good thing for it;
3. Kamino - Solana liquidity layer, accounting for 28% of Solana’s total TVL.
4. Banana Gun - the only TG Bot listed on Binance (except Bonk).
► 3/ $BNB
BNB's BSC mainnet will undergo a hard fork upgrade on September 26. This upgrade will allow validators to continuously produce blocks, significantly improving the performance of the BSC chain. The good news will promote BNB's strength. The best time to enter may be September 4th, because then Ton may have a slight correction for a few days after BNB mining ends, which is just the right time for low-price placement.
In addition, Zhao Changpeng will return strongly at the end of September. With various favorable factors, BNB is expected to usher in a wave of increases in late September.
