Data release and interpretation this week:
Monday (September 2) TON Asia
Tuesday (September 3) US August ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday (September 4) Bitcoin Odyssey
Thursday (September 5) US August ADP employment; Meta Expo Dubai 2024
Friday (September 6) US August unemployment rate; US August seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls
On Friday (September 6), the Federal Reserve's "number three person", FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams and Federal Reserve Board member Waller will speak successively.
(1) Non-farm payrolls:
Abbreviated as non-farm; reflects the changes in the number of non-farm employment in the United States, that is, excluding the employment data of the agricultural sector; usually released on the first Friday of each month. If the data is better than expected, it indicates a strong job market, which may boost market confidence and have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency market. If the data is worse than expected, it may cause market concerns about the economic outlook and put pressure on the cryptocurrency market.
The non-farm payrolls report released in July showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in July increased by 114,000, the lowest since December 2020, far below the expected 175,000, and a sharp drop from the previous value of 206,000 (revised down to 179,000); the unemployment rate in July rose by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021, exceeding the expected 4.1%.
As the non-farm data in July was far below expectations and the unemployment rate triggered the Sam Rule, a recession indicator with an accuracy rate of 100%, market panic was ignited. After the data was released, traders began to bet on the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September and predicted that the interest rate cut this year would exceed 110 basis points.
In addition, the revised annual employment data for March released at the end of August showed that the annual non-farm payrolls were significantly revised down by 818,000. In the past three months, employment growth reached 170,000 per month, indicating further weakness in the labor market and increasing the possibility of a Fed rate cut.
On August 26, Goldman Sachs analysts Jan Hatzius, Alec Phillips, David Mericle and others released a report saying that the data revised downward by 300,000 or 25,000 per month is accurate, the basic rate of overall employment growth is about 160,000 jobs per month, and the data implied by the Quarterly Employment and Payroll Census (QCEW) is misleading.
Published: September 6, 20:30
Expected: 16.5
Previous value: 11.4
