The U.S. Department of Commerce released the July personal consumption expenditure index on Friday night, which increased by 2.5% year-on-year, the same as in June, slightly lower than the market expectation of 2.6%, and increased by 0.2% month-on-month. Although it increased slightly from June, it was still in line with expectations. The data showed that the growth rate of U.S. inflation continued to slow down and consumer spending remained strong.
Last week, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting that "the time has come" to adjust policy, and the timing and pace of interest rate cuts depend on the next data, the changing outlook and the balance of risks. As Friday's data showed that inflation continued to be controlled, the market's message that the Fed would cut interest rates by at least 1 basis point in September has increased.
In terms of cryptocurrency, the release of the July personal consumption expenditure index failed to save Bitcoin from its recent decline. It only briefly stimulated Bitcoin to hit a high of $59,944. Then selling pressure emerged and Bitcoin fell all the way to a low of $57,701, a drop of 3.7% in 4 hours.
Today (the 1st) at 6 am, the price of Bitcoin has been falling from around $59,000, and the lowest price fell to $57,777 at around 1 pm, a drop of more than 2%. As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin has slightly rebounded to $58,240, a drop of 1.76% in the past 24 hours. The trading concentration area in August was at the level of $59,200, and today's monthly line closed below $59,000. In the medium term, it may retrace to the $55,000 mark, which requires continued attention.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
First, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the current price of Bitcoin is between the lower and middle tracks of the Bollinger Band, close to the lower track area, which shows that the market's short position is very obvious. The opening of the Bollinger Band has spread outward, which indicates that the subsequent market volatility will increase and price fluctuations may become more severe.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the three-line value of KDJ crossed downward near 50 to form a death fork pattern. This pattern often means that the price may continue to fall, so we should remain cautious about the future trend.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 4H chart, both the DIF line and the DEA line are running below the 0 axis, which indicates that the market is currently in a bearish state. More importantly, the DIF line has a tendency to cross the DEA line downward. Once the crossing is completed and a dead cross pattern is formed, it will further confirm that the price will continue to fall. At the same time, the red bar chart of MACD is gradually shortening, which also verifies the view that the price will continue to fall.
Bitcoin one-hour chart
First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator in the Bitcoin 1H chart, the price of Bitcoin is currently floating between the middle area of the Bollinger Bands and the lower track, running close to the lower track. This shows that the market is currently experiencing a round of downward momentum, and the market sentiment is bearish. Moreover, the opening state of the Bollinger Bands shows a trend of spreading outward, which means that the volatility of subsequent market trends will increase. Therefore, it is necessary to pay close attention to the strength of the lower track support to determine whether the price will fall further or rebound.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the KDJ three-line value formed a short-term death cross below 50, but then flattened. This phenomenon shows that the long and short sides are currently in a fierce struggle, and the market is in a relatively balanced state. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to whether the subsequent K-line value and D-line value can cross and continue to decline to form a death cross pattern.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the DIF line and the DEA line are both running below the 0 axis and showing a parallel trend, without giving a clear signal of long and short. However, from the MACD green bar chart, it is shorter than the previous cycle, which shows that the short force is gradually weakening. If the green bar chart can turn from green to red, it means that the bulls are starting to exert their strength and the price may rebound soon.
In summary, the following suggestions are given for reference
Bitcoin rebounds to the 58500-58800 line and short it, the target is 57750-57000, if it breaks, look at 56500, and defend at 59200.
It is better to give you a correct idea and trend than to give you a 100% accurate suggestion. After all, it is better to teach a man to fish than to give him a fish. Suggestions can make you money for a while, but ideas can make you money for a lifetime! What matters is the idea, the grasp of trends, the layout of the market and the planning of positions. All I can do is to use my practical experience to help you so that your investment decisions and business management will go in the right direction.
Writing time: (2024-09-01, 20:15)
(Text - Daxian Shuobi) Hereby declare: There is a delay in online release, and the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is committed to research and analysis in investment fields such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, foreign exchange, and stocks. He has been involved in the financial market for many years and has rich experience in real-time operations. Investments are risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. For more real-time market analysis, please pay attention to the 伀重hao Daxian Shuobi to discuss and exchange together.
