September 1, 2024
On September 1, the first day of school, many people will post photos of their children going to school, especially children going to kindergarten and primary school, giving people the illusion of reincarnation. In memory, there are still vague memories of entering the campus decades ago. For ordinary people, this continuation is the greatest meaning of life. However, unlike when we were in school, most parents would say "study hard", people nowadays are much more open-minded. They don't seek to rank top in grades. Eating well, sleeping well and being happy in school are the most important things. The general direction has not changed, but the details have changed a lot. Isn't this a cycle?
Today I will tell you another reference indicator. According to Coinglass data, the Bitcoin balance on Binance platform decreased by 43,014 in the past 7 days, and Coinbase Pro decreased by 15,495. In the past month, the two platforms decreased by 78,398 in total. Generally speaking, Bitcoin withdrawal from exchanges is also a bear market signal. Generally speaking, it is sold on exchanges in bull markets and transferred to wallets for bottom-fishing in bear markets. Combined with the several signals I mentioned yesterday, it can be generally determined that the market has entered the late bear market.
Of course, it does not mean that the price is the lowest in the late bear market, but it is low in the long run. As long as the target is good, you will definitely make money in the end. But another problem is that liquidity is insufficient in the late bear market, and prices tend to hit new lows in a fragile market. If we want to accurately buy the bottom, we can basically only wait for a big negative line, and this opportunity may not be there. What I am most worried about now is the US stock market. Recently, I saw that Mr. Ba already holds more than 200 billion US dollars, and it seems that he is preparing for some emergency. This is still worth our vigilance.
The short-term market continues to decline. There is no need to worry too much about this small decline. Moreover, the price of Bitcoin is still far from the lowest point it has reached before. This short-term trend is more likely to stimulate the market to be bearish. The probability of a short-term rebound is still relatively high. In addition, looking at the trend of Ethereum, the daily line has basically completed the second bottoming out. If it goes down further, it will break through and plummet. That kind of market is another matter. At present, both the price and the market sentiment are in a low-pressure state. At this time, I think the most important thing is to stick to the spot and wait for a rebound. As for the overall risk, you can wait for the rebound before reducing your position to deal with it.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
