-> First
(08/31) According to BlockBeats, QCP Capital stated on August 31 that if next week's nonfarm payrolls data falls short of expectations, it could prompt the United States to start cutting interest rates as early as September.
Current market odds suggest a 33% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 67% chance of a 50 basis point cut.
Despite the importance of recent macroeconomic news, its impact on the cryptocurrency market has been minimal. QCP Capital expects Bitcoin (BTC) to remain within a range of $58,000 to $65,000 in the near term as the market awaits a positive catalyst to fuel a breakout.
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(08/31) Fed rate cut expectations rise: 70% probability of 25 basis point reduction in September
As of August 31, CME’s “Fed Watch” market data diverges from QCP Capital’s statement, in which the market has a 70% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. The probability of a more substantial cut of 50 basis points is currently at 30%. These expectations reflect the growing anticipation of monetary policy easing as the Fed responds to ongoing economic conditions. Market participants are closely monitoring these developments, with potential rate cuts a key factor influencing financial markets in the coming weeks.
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(08/31) U.S. PCE price index holds steady at 2.6% in July, matching June’s figure
According to Odaily, the annual rate of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in July remained at 2.6%, consistent with June's figures and slightly below the market expectation of 2.7%.
The monthly rate for the U.S. PCE price index in July was 0.2%, in line with market expectations and the previous figure of 0.1%. In addition, U.S. real personal consumption expenditure (PCE) increased by 0.4% monthly in July, matching the previous month’s revised figure and exceeding the anticipated 0.3% increase.
These figures reflect a stable inflationary environment, with consumer spending showing resilience as the economy continues to navigate a period of uncertainty.
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Bitcoin needs to go down further before it can have an upward trend.
Some traders believe that Bitcoin needs to fall further before resuming its uptrend.
Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, suggested waiting for the Bitcoin price to drop to the $40,000 range for an ideal entry into the bull market.
Hyland believes Bitcoin will experience some volatility ahead of the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 4 and expects mostly sideways action in September, historically the worst-performing month for Bitcoin. Despite this, Cointelegraph disagrees with Hyland noting that Bitcoin’s price action in September may not follow the trends of previous years as selling pressure from Bitcoin miners has stabilized and the stablecoin’s supply ratio shows signs of rising.
Still, Hyland noted that Bitcoin must remain above the $57,700 level and, if it breaks, it must hold the $56,000 level to avoid a lower low. This highlights the Cup and Handle chart formation seen in other halvings where this low is in the $56,000 and $55,000 pattern.