August 31, 2024

It is the last day of August again. This month, we experienced a sharp drop of 85, and then the overall stability was maintained. From a macro-cyclical perspective, we are still in a downward cycle of wide fluctuations. In my opinion, the low volatility of this month is a feature of the bottom signal. Why do I say that? According to past rules, the real bottom requires long-term fluctuations and the main force to complete the accumulation of funds. This cycle is generally measured in months, 3-6 months at most, and 1-3 months at least. At present, it seems to be a bit like this.

There is a high probability of a rate cut in September. Combined with my previous judgment that a black swan will appear before and after the rate cut, it is better to move forward conservatively in the following September and October. On the one hand, if a black swan occurs in the US stock market, it will inevitably lead to a sharp drop in the price of Bitcoin, so we can fill our positions. On the other hand, even if the US stock market transitions smoothly, it will not soar immediately after a small rate cut (liquidity cannot be converted in a short period of time). In this way, there is a high probability that the two months from September to October will be in a wait-and-see period, which just meets the characteristics of bottom fluctuations. We can wait and fill our positions one by one.

Based on this judgment, I sold my bottom-fishing stocks when the price rebounded to around 65,000. In fact, you will find that the profits of those who are willing to sell and boldly bottom-fishing are still very good, although the overall price is downward (of course, there should not be too many copycats in this process). In fact, after the spot ETFs of BTC and ETH are approved, the overall volatility is much smaller, and the liquidity is definitely better than before. I think this idea of ​​​​banding should still be taken seriously. In this regard, you can actually try it through grid trading or options.

In the short term, yesterday it fell below 58,000 and then quickly pulled back. Yesterday, Ethereum's ETF had 0 transactions in one day. In such a sluggish market, the main players can only make some profits through short-term pins, so we don't have to be too harsh on the market. Another feature that proves the bottom of the market is that the fees of many coins have become negative, including the fees of Bitcoin. Therefore, when the short-term decline is low, we can continue to buy boldly. If it doesn't rise much, hold it. If it rises a lot, sell it in waves, and then leave the profit as a long-term chip. It is very important to build a position at the bottom.

Thank you for your attention and likes.