Interpretation of today’s market: A large-scale “death cross” has occurred. If economic data cannot drive an increase, the market will continue to fluctuate and fall. Where is the range?
The technical "death cross" of the large-scale timeline that I mentioned at the beginning of this week has been formed. Although it is a simple indicator and not 100% accurate, its appearance at this time has indeed cast a shadow on the market.
The current market sentiment is poor, and the main driving force for the rise comes from external economic data. Within the market, as more traders continue to buy below 60,000 and gradually sell above 63,000, a larger "price vacuum" has gradually formed. In the absence of external sentiment, the vacuum zone is operating at a low amplitude.
MA200 crosses above M120 at 63,600:
Although a "death cross" decline signal is formed technically, it also shows that the long-term moving average trend has exceeded the short-term moving average MA120 and is moving higher. The long-term bottom value of BTC has increased, but a short-term decline is currently inevitable.
Oscillation range:
On Monday#BTC☀ After completing the daily upper resistance breakthrough test, it directly oscillated and fell back, currently falling below the daily midline position, and continued to fall to the bottom, about to complete the entire daily oscillation trend. The current daily support is 56,200.
Can we turn the tide tonight?
Tonight's PEC data will be the last important data this week. Although I personally expect that this data will not bring too much momentum to the market, it is still an opportunity. If the data drives bullish sentiment, the price can break through and stabilize above the 60,200-day midline again. The possibility of continued rebound will be greater, but attention should be paid to whether this position can be stabilized.
Notice:
Regarding the breakthrough of 60,200, how to judge whether it has stabilized? Judging from the current situation, it is best to stabilize in 4 hours. To be more conservative, we can see whether today's daily closing line can be above 60,200. If the price has not completed the contraction, then it will still maintain a volatile downward trend until the support below is tested to stimulate a buying rebound.
RSI: Index is 45. The index continues to fall and remains neutral for the time being. There is a probability of an oversold rebound when it touches 30.
CME Futures Index: Currently maintains a positive premium of 100 points. After the last liquidation, bulls are more cautious and the weekly delivery has been completed today.
Summarize:
Judging from the performance of #U.S.stocks last night, U.S. stocks clearly revealed concerns or risk aversion about the approaching interest rate cut, with funds leaving large-cap and technology stocks, and either seeking to buy low-priced small-cap stocks, or waiting for bargain hunting opportunities.
At the same time, last night also affected the decline of BTC. From my recent data statistics, it can be seen that the market value of stablecoins in the market has continued to rise and accumulate, and they are also waiting for something.
