BTC has risen from a low of around 15,000 to around 73,000, and then has been fluctuating sideways for about 6 months. So is it still possible to buy at this high price?
Personally, I think it is definitely possible.
First of all, you need to know that the relationship between BTC and the US dollar is an inverse correlation, that is, when the US dollar appreciates, BTC falls; when the US dollar depreciates, BTC rises.
Data review:
In April 2021, the US dollar index fell to a low of around 89 and started to rise; BTC rose to a high of around 60,000 and started to fall.
In October 2022, the US dollar index rose to a peak of around 113 and started to fall; BTC fell to a low of around 19,000 and started to rise.
In September 2023, the U.S. dollar index started to fall near the oscillation range pressure of 106; BTC started to rise near the oscillation range support of 25,000.
In April 2024, the U.S. dollar index rose to the range pressure of around 106 and started to fall; BTC started to fluctuate sideways at a high level near the highest point of 73,000.
Now the US dollar index is near the support level of 100 in the past two years, facing two options:
① Rising;
②Decline;
In the past two years, the Federal Reserve has been trying to suppress the US dollar index through a series of methods and has been regulating it. From the cautiousness in the beginning, fearing a hard landing, which caused a series of problems, it has finally come to a soft landing.
Looking back over the past 10 years, the Federal Reserve's recognition range for the US dollar index should be around 95 (92~99).
With the Fed's interest rate cuts and other measures, I believe the U.S. dollar index will fall below the support level of 100 in the past two years and fall towards the position expected by the Fed.
In this way, when the US dollar index starts to fall, BTC will also start to rise; when the US dollar index falls and breaks, I believe BTC will also break through the previous high of 73,000.
If you have different opinions, you are welcome to leave a message in the comment section.
