(1/2) Nvidia's financial report may cause a "huge shock"
It's time to stay up late again. Nvidia will release its financial report after the market close. There may be a "huge shock". It is best to take insurance with long and short positions.
[Fundamentals]
1. After 4 a.m. Beijing time on August 29, Nvidia will release its second quarter performance report for fiscal year 2024 after the market close. The global financial market is holding its breath. This financial report may give the answer to "whether the rise of US AI stocks is sustainable." Nvidia has risen by about 160% so far this year, contributing nearly 1/4 of the market value growth of the S&P 500 index. The financial report may bring a "huge shock" to the market in the short term.
2. The market generally expects that Nvidia's revenue for the quarter will increase by 112% compared with the same period last year; the year-on-year growth rate of data center revenue is expected to reach 142%. If Nvidia's revenue exceeds expectations, the AI sector may have 3-15% room for growth. On the contrary, if it is less than expected, the AI sector may have 5-10% room for decline, and may reverse, thereby dragging down the technology sector and the broader market, and may enter a correction.
3. The liquidity of the currency market is seriously insufficient, and it is not strongly correlated with the Nasdaq, but there is a certain correlation at key time points, especially when the Nasdaq falls, it will basically follow the decline, which is also one of the typical manifestations of insufficient liquidity.
[On-chain data]
1. On-chain data shows that since April 22, 2024, short-term holders have no desire to sell, and the holding time has gradually become long-term holders. That is: more and more short-term holders hold for more than 155 days. Data shows that the holdings of short-term holders have dropped from about 3.31 million to about 2.81 million, a total reduction of more than 500,000; while the holdings of long-term holders have increased from about 13.43 million to 13.93 million, a total increase of more than 500,000, and the two are equivalent.
2. Since the Bitcoin Spot ETF was listed on January 11, 2024, the cumulative net inflow has been nearly 310,000 coins, of which the net inflow after April did not become long-term holders, but more investors outside the ETF.
3. Regardless of price fluctuations, it is increasingly difficult for long-term investors to hand over their chips. Instead, more short-term investors have become long-term and high-net-worth investors who hoard coins.
