#BTC☀ Market analysis: There is no village in front and no store behind. After the sudden sell-off, it is currently in an awkward situation. Let’s take a look!
To be honest, the early morning sell-off caught everyone off guard. If it was American traders who sold, but seeing that U.S. stocks closed higher, investment sentiment would not be so high.
Of course, Bloomberg gave a reasonable explanation for this, saying that since Nvidia’s financial report is about to be released, traders believe that it will cause large fluctuations, so they shrink their risk investment strategies, reduce their holdings of risky assets, and gather funds. For US stocks, the crypto market or BTC is indeed a risky asset.
However, I have an objective attitude towards this. I would rather believe that it is a game in the derivatives market. After all, the positive premium of the BTC futures market was 500-600 points last night, and after this battle, the current futures market is still at a negative premium of 500 points. The main decline of BTC also comes from the gap between 4 and 6 in the morning when CME BTC futures settlements are taking place. It is hard not to doubt this.
Back to the current market, the price has fallen below 60,000 and is currently in a rebound, and the position is basically in a "neither village nor store" position.
Looking at the bulls, the current rebound is not an effective support, and there is still a long way to go before it reaches the effective support.
From a bearish perspective, the current upper resistance is not close. If a short-term rebound touches the upper resistance, the floating loss in this space will not be something that everyone can bear.
Maybe I haven’t cultivated enough, so I am going to wait and see.
Take a look at the point changes:
At present, the BTC price has fallen below the mid-line of the daily line and returned to the lower track of the daily line. The mid-line has become a short-term resistance at 60,400, while the lower support of the daily lower track is at 56,500. Although the price has rebounded, it is difficult for us to judge whether this rebound is related to the resistance decline or a direct V-shaped strong rebound.
Before the data is released, what if we reverse the logic of clearing long positions?
We are all waiting for the data on Thursday and Friday this week, because these data will determine whether the crypto market or BTC will continue to maintain the optimistic expectations of trading rate cuts. After all, from Monday to today Wednesday, the US stock market may be continuing to trade rate cuts, but the crypto market continues to fluctuate and fall.
As for the direct decline in the early morning, I looked at the 1-minute trend. It is obviously not a single large-scale direct sell-off, but an intermittent sell-off. Of course, it is difficult for us to judge whether it is the main force or retail investors. However, it is obvious that after the early test sell-off, many retail investors followed suit and sold in the later period, causing the market to fall directly below
60,000. Looking at the premium level in the futures market, a lot of long positions have been liquidated.
If we think in reverse, if the long positions in the derivatives market were cleared out deliberately, then the purpose was to prevent long positions from making profits. Does that mean that the main force or institution involved in this manipulation believed that the data on Thursday and Friday would cause the market to rise?
Summarize:
Although we can reverse the logic, it does not mean that we have to be bullish directly. We are not sure whether there will be any follow-up actions for a cleanup of this scale, especially when there is no effective support for the rebound. My advice is to wait regardless of whether to go long or short.
Of course, if you can also say that I am not well-trained and timid, there is nothing wrong with it. After all, this is either long or short, there are only two answers. For gamblers, the probability of winning is already very high.
By the way, Nvidia’s financial report will be released after the U.S. stock market closes early this morning!
