Many people think the bull run is over, but I don’t think it has started yet. Here are 4 reasons why.

1. More liquidity is coming

The index tracks new money entering the crypto market. It is far from the levels of previous cycles. The main reason why the cycle peak may not have arrived yet is liquidity. As global macro policies are relaxed, liquidity is expected to surge in 2025. Once liquidity increases, it will drive up cryptocurrency prices.

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2. YT Metrics (YouTube Views)

Compared to the previous cycle, the YT indicator is about 5 times lower. In 2021, when Bitcoin was worth $70,000, the number of views per day was 4 million. Now, Bitcoin is worth $70,000, and the number of views per day is about 800,000. This shows that the interest of retail investors is still low and there is room for growth.

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3. BTC.D (Bitcoin market capitalization share)

The chart below shows BTC market cap as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap. BTC.D has been consolidating in the 54% to 57% range since April. The current market phase is more like the early stages of a longer market cycle than the end of one. The recent volatility could be just an experimental phase or the beginning of a new cycle. And once BTC.D falls below this range, it would mark the beginning of the alt season.

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The chart shows that when the Fed injects liquidity, such as buying assets, the Fed's balance sheet increases. This means more money enters the market, driving economic activity and investment. When the Fed reduces liquidity, such as selling assets, the balance sheet decreases and there is less money in the market.

It is important to follow this trend because if the Fed reduces liquidity, there will be less money in the traditional financial market and subsequently in the cryptocurrency market. A reversal of the trend could lead to a liquidity crunch, which would have a negative impact on the market.

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Bitcoin, ETH and Altcoins Still Have Room to Rise

Historically, the price of Bitcoin has at least doubled during each halving. In 2012, the price of BTC surged 2.52 times, followed by a 2.26-fold increase in 2016 and a 4.05-fold increase in 2020. At the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin was trading at around $42,208. Even after reaching $73,750 in March, data still shows that the bull cycle is not over yet.

To match past halving performance, Bitcoin’s price would need to rise further, targeting between $80,000 and $85,000 before the current cycle peaks. Historical trends suggest there is room for further growth into 2024.

Now, on to something else — starting with ETH. The second most valuable cryptocurrency has taken BTC by surprise during the 2021 bull run and has outperformed it for a long time.

Despite the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF, ETH is still not performing as well as it did three years ago. On June 20, Ethereum’s dominance was 18.80%. As of now, it has dropped to 15%, indicating that the altcoin has yet to replicate its impressive performance in 2021.

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Bitcoin’s dominance is over 57%. In addition, ETH’s poor performance is also attributed to the delay of this round of altcoin season.

It’s worth noting that the cryptocurrency’s rally was one of the main factors that propelled many other altcoins to incredible peaks last time. But recently, BNB appears to be the only top altcoin in the last cycle to surpass its previous all-time high.

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Which sectors are worth paying attention to in the near future?

In the cottage market

Recently, Binance has been creating the market through contracts, and the market has begun to look for investment targets with low market value and unlisted contracts, such as data, etc., which have seen significant increases.

In addition to the Binance ecosystem, there is also the Bitcoin ecosystem. For example, STX will be upgraded in two days, which is undoubtedly a positive. The old DEFI and public chain have been mentioned in previous articles.

The endless meme model is approaching the end of the Dharma era.

Sun's sunpumpmeme is still the absolute traffic core. Sun said frankly that there will be a meme with a market value of billions on Tron, and then the four meme on the $Bnb chain will replace it.

Then base $avax $apt $ftm $matic and pump clones from various chains are also eyeing

We have seen the following plot in the DEFI era, the NFT era, and the inscription era. Everyone rushed into PVP, and the funds were dispersed in large quantities, causing the market value of the Golden Dog to rise from 1m to 100k and then to 10k. Then the story ends. If there is no new narrative later, then the market funds will definitely flow back to the mainstream currency.

This is why I have been asking everyone to pay more attention to the leading projects in mainstream public chains, DEFI, Rwa, AI and other tracks recently, because the funds will flow back quickly and the meme bubble will eventually burst. In addition, as players in each chain will only play the ecological projects of the public chains they hold, it will be difficult for an absolutely unified large-scale narrative to come out later.

Facing this kind of market, my suggestion is to invest according to the strength of the public chain. From the energy level, it must be BTC ETH SOL BASE TON TRON BNB, and then other

Therefore, in the end, we still have to choose the strong track leader of the strong energy-level public chain, the inscription and rune leader of the Bitcoin ecosystem, the DEFI leader of the Ethereum ecosystem, the gamefi leader of the $Ton ecosystem, etc.

If you choose the right track, your subsequent investment will be more effective!