Last night, someone in the commentary booth asked me why Qujiang Cultural Tourism, which runs the Tang Dynasty City That Never Sleeps in Xi'an, lost nearly 200 million in the first half of the year. My first instinct was that there was a problem with cost control. After the market closed, I verified it and found that the situation was more complicated.
First of all, although the Tang Dynasty City that Never Sleeps is a popular tourist attraction, it does not charge admission and has a large flow of traffic, but the per capita consumption is low. Qujiang Cultural Tourism is a light-asset agency operation, earning revenue sharing. In the end, the listed company only received a very thin profit, earning more than 200,000 in the first half of the year.
Secondly, Qujiang Tourism has a large amount of accounts receivable from local institutions and organizations, and in the first half of the year, it made a provision for bad debts of nearly 200 million yuan, which was the main source of losses in the first half of the year. The parties involved in the bad debts are the Xi'an Qujiang New District Business Asset Management Center, the Xi'an Qujiang Daming Palace Ruins Area Protection and Reconstruction Office, and the Xi'an Qujiang Cultural Industry Development Center, with a total bad debt of more than 500 million yuan.
These names sound official, and like Qujiang Culture and Tourism, they are all ultimately controlled by the Qujiang New District Management Committee. To put it bluntly, they are all state-owned enterprises. Does it sound strange? State-owned enterprises owe each other debts, and finally put the bad debts into listed companies, and shareholders become the unlucky ones who pay the bill in the end.
In fact, there is a similar situation in Zhangjiajie (000430), where the tourism industry is booming, but the listed company lost 60 million in the first half of the year. The reason is that the Dayong Ancient City, which was built with an investment of 2 billion yuan, saw a 80% drop in passenger flow in the first half of the year, with only 2,300 people buying tickets and operating income of 2.32 million.
It's just a modern-style antique building complex. I don't see how 2 billion was spent. Anyway, it's all the money of the listed company. Now the operating income for half a year is only more than 2 million. How will it end?
Many stock investors see news reports about crowded tourist attractions and think that buying tourism stocks will definitely make money, but this is not the case. Maybe the local tourist attractions do make some money from tourism, but in the end you will find that the good things have nothing to do with the listed companies, and all the bad things are on you.
Behind this is the problem of a large number of A-share listed companies lacking business ethics, with profits transferred outside the company and used by listed companies to fill the gap. A typical example is Beijing Culture, which won every time it invested in blockbuster movies in previous years, but the listed company made a lot of money but not profit, and its stock price continued to fall.
Where is the money? It's all gone. Remember the famous tax evasion case involving Zheng Shuang's Yin-Yang contract? She was paid 160 million yuan for 77 days of filming, 2.08 million yuan a day, and Beijing Culture Media paid for it. Anyone with a normal brain would realize that the pay is not right, but at least on the surface, you can't find any other problems except the tax evasion that was exposed.
As a retail investor, when you buy stocks, you are not only buying the company's performance, but also the company's character. Many listed companies have a dark history of exploiting small and medium shareholders. Do you think they will change?
……
Today, A-shares traded 510 billion yuan, with a median decline of 1.51%. Yesterday's rise was not enough to offset today's decline, and this is the result of the national team's efforts to protect the market.
One surprising thing happened today. The national team seemed to be buying CSI 1000 ETFs. I took a look and found that 159845, 512100, 560010 and 159629 ETFs were all bought by large funds at the same time.
I didn't post the same picture three times on purpose. This is the intraday trend of three different CSI 1000 ETFs today. There were strong funds buying before the closing at noon and before 2:30 pm. Although there is no evidence that this was done by the national team, the trading method is very similar, and at this time, it is unlikely that other funds will rush into broad-based ETFs in a big way.
Perhaps the authorities have also realized that blindly buying the CSI 300 will not save the A-share market. The decline of small and medium-cap stocks cannot be stopped at all, and the trend has accelerated in the past week. If they don't take any action, a new round of screams and howls may be coming.
Of course, the CSI 300 is still being bought today, so the market can still struggle around 2850. If the national team gives up, I think it will fall to 2600 in a week.
……
1. Pinduoduo crashed last night, from 145 to 100, a drop of 60 billion US dollars in one day, which is almost 1.6 times the market value of JD.com. Pinduoduo revealed the expectation that its performance will slow down in the future, which caused panic stampede in the market. Similarly, in the US stock market, even if the US technology companies have worse news, the decline in stock prices will be very restrained, which is still a problem of chip confidence and liquidity.
Recently, several overseas institutions have lowered their target prices for Pinduoduo. I took a look and most of them are between US$170 and US$180. The most ruthless one was Citi, which lowered it to US$120.
2. There is important news in the photovoltaic industry. Longi Green Energy and TCL have both raised the price of silicon wafers. Longi responded that the previous price had fallen below the cash cost and it still faces great pressure even if it raises the price. In any case, the fact that the price can be raised means that the supply and demand in the market are showing signs of recovery.
3. Ctrip's second quarter earnings per share were 7.25 yuan, higher than the market expectation of 5.22 yuan, and revenue was 12.8 billion, up 14% year-on-year, slightly higher than market expectations. After the collapse of Pinduoduo, Ctrip has become the only glory of Chinese concept stocks. This company is the real company in the tourism industry that makes money for shareholders, but it is not in the A-share market.
4. JD.com announced that it will repurchase no more than US$5 billion of its shares in the next 36 months.
5. Today, CSI released another CSI A500 index, and many people are discussing the difference between it and the previous CSI 500. The main difference is that the previous CSI 500 excluded the mid-tier A-share companies after the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. The new CSI A500 index includes the top companies, so the total market value of its index sample is about 40 trillion yuan, and the median market value of the 500 stocks is 32 billion yuan, which is significantly larger than the previous CSI 500.
To give a simple analogy, the original CSI 500 was from the waist to the chest, while the newly released CSI A500 is from the waist to the top of the head.
That's all.