#BTC☀ Interpretation of the market: Technically, the market fluctuates and falls, and the upper track of the daily line is compressed. Pay attention to whether the combination of this week's macro data and the market will help support a rapid rebound!
Today's market is still quite interesting. For this week, it may form a "suspense".
The market has been fluctuating and falling since last night, with the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages going down, and a state of falling. But in fact, the current trading sentiment of interest rate cuts has not been transmitted from the US stock market to the crypto market, so it has maintained a low-amplitude fluctuation and decline.
The upper track of the daily Bollinger band where BTC is currently located is being compressed, the upper line is moving down, and the middle line is moving up. The range is 60,800-64,500. Combined with this week's macro data, we need to pay attention to whether the short-term rebound is accompanied by a breakthrough.
According to the time calculation, the oscillating decline will continue until around Thursday and Friday, and the BTC price may return to the mid-line position of the daily line. After a period of time, this position should form support at 61,500-62,000 around Thursday.
If the market accompanied by macro data continues to trade interest rate cuts and economic stability after interest rate cuts, it should rebound at the support and then form a breakthrough. At that time, the upper resistance of the Bollinger Band should be around 63,500. After breaking through, we can see the situation around 68,500.
In the short term, we will look at the support of the daily MA50 at 62,000. At the same time, we will pay attention to the decline rate in the past few days. If it continues to fluctuate and fall, it will basically meet my expectations.
RSI: The index fell back to around 53, and the bullish sentiment fell rapidly, and it was obviously cooled down.
Summary:
Although I had a short order before, it is not appropriate to be bearish directly from the current volatile decline. At present, the bullish sentiment is indeed difficult to continue from a purely technical perspective, and the market is falling. However, once the economic data on Thursday and Friday show the resilience of the current US economy in data, it may directly ignite the market's expectations of interest rate cuts again.
People are eager for interest rate cuts, but they are also worried about the potential risk of economic recession caused by interest rate cuts. Therefore, when determining the rhythm of interest rate cuts, whether the economic data is resilient and healthy will determine whether the risk market is optimistic before the interest rate cut.
For micro traders, the recent period may be a good time for swing trading, but for me, unless key support or resistance is tested, I will still choose to watch more and do less.(Maybe I am not professional)
