Where will the new economic indicators point to this week? Is the altcoin season coming?
Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting last weekend made it clear that the FOM will begin the first rate cut in September. Previously, the view of a 25BP rate cut was the market consensus. As Powell's view came into effect, the market added bets on a 50BP rate cut in September.
If the economic data this month can continue to provide support, the clear promise of interest rate cuts will give the market great confidence, and mainstream cryptocurrencies will begin to rebound, but as they approach trend resistance, there is still great uncertainty in the short-term follow-up trend.
This week, there are several important economic data and speeches by several important figures, the core of which is still around the Fed's September rate cut. In addition, Russia's cryptocurrency bill is also worth paying attention to, and the currency market is beginning to move towards a bigger stage.
Is the arrest of TON founder a new black swan?
The biggest event in the crypto world last weekend was the arrest of TELGRAM founder Pavel. Both TVL and coin prices in the TON-related ecosystem have fallen sharply. I think this panic will not be eliminated in the short term until the official has further explanation.
Like X, Ton supports freedom of speech and has brought greater hope to human beings who yearn for openness, tolerance and freedom. There is no doubt about this. However, I don’t think it’s that simple that Ton founder Pavel was arrested in France this time. It is very likely that the long-arm jurisdiction of the United States is behind this!
This week's major economic events
NVIDIA's financial report is about to be released. AI chip giant NVIDIA will announce its latest quarterly results after the U.S. stock market closes on the 28th, Eastern Time. Whether it can once again deliver a report card that exceeds expectations, NVIDIA's financial report will once again drive the trend of the entire AI and technology sector. (In the past 10 quarters, NVIDIA has shown strong financial performance, with revenue exceeding expectations for 7 consecutive quarters and exceeding market expectations in 9 quarters)
Second quarter GDP revised value, US PCE price index
The revised value of U.S. second-quarter GDP will be released on the evening of Thursday (29th) Taiwan time, followed by the U.S. inflation data PCE price index the next day (30th). You can examine whether there are signs of recession in the U.S. economy and the inflation data. Whether the temperature continues to drop.
The above information will provide important reference for Fed policymakers to decide the extent of interest rate cuts in September and in the future.
Why are the next few months considered a golden period?
The first point: interest rate cuts will not immediately bring about sufficient liquidity. First, interest rate cuts are a gradual process, gradually lowering interest rates; second, policy transmission takes time.
However, the interest rate cut directly represents a policy shift, and the market will expect that liquidity will become more and more abundant in the future. "Expectations" are precious. In the next few months, expectations will continue to strengthen.
The second point is that the recession has not really arrived yet. The unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls are still within controllable range. There is no substantial evidence of recession. Judging from Powell's speech, the Fed is also leading the market to believe so.
The third focus: the US election and Trump’s coming to power
In the coming months, the expectation of monetary easing will continue to strengthen, the recession has not yet come, and finally there is the Trump narrative
What's the matter with the copycats' eagerness to move? Is the copycat season coming?
Since the beginning of this month, the trading logic of the entire financial market has changed significantly, especially after Powell's speech, the market has clarified its direction.
Gold price rose to a record high; the U.S. dollar index fell; the Russell 2000's gains accelerated; crypto altcoins rose sharply... I haven't had time to watch Cathie Wood's Arkk, but I estimate it will rise sharply soon.
Why is this so? Because the logic behind the rise of these assets is based on "the liquidity that will be flooding in the future." This can be explained in one sentence. When the Fed's policy changes, global risk assets will rise.
If Bitcoin tests 7w again, I think there is a very high probability that it will rush up, after all, the environment has changed significantly.
Choose altcoins according to the times
In the current market, we need to pay close attention to upcoming hot spots and news, as these are likely to become catalysts for the next round of market trends.
For example, Nvidia’s financial report, which will be released this week, is expected to boost the AI sector. In addition, it may also benefit related currencies such as LUNA, USTC and VGX.
At the same time, you can also add some small-cap altcoins that have not yet risen sharply to your watch list, waiting for the opportunity for market rotation. Coins that have once exploded, such as LINA, COMBO, BEL, PERP, GTC, OGN, etc., may have the opportunity to perform again.
