After the arrest of TG founder Pavel Durov, $TON fell by nearly 20% in a short period of time, but I am not so pessimistic about this incident.
In this incident, the charges faced by Durov mainly focused on the fact that the Telegram application itself may be involved in illegal activities, a bit like the [Silk Road] of the year. However, the situation of Telegram is more subtle, and we cannot directly identify it as a software in the "dark zone".
The market generally believes that considering the efficiency of legal institutions in handling similar cases, this matter may drag on for a long time.
So what we really need to consider is whether Telegram will be banned for this reason: as a global instant messaging platform, Telegram claims to have about 900 million active users, with a very large user base and high demand.
Even if Durov is arrested, Telegram's operating team and technical architecture are still there, and the daily operation of the platform can continue to be maintained to a certain extent.
The strong user community gives Telegram a certain ability to withstand pressure when facing legal challenges.
At least in the short term, I don't think there is any need to worry that Telegram will be banned or closed.
From a positive perspective, this incident can even be regarded as a landmark event for Telegram to adapt to the global regulatory environment.
It is worth mentioning that $TON was sanctioned by the SEC when it was issued in the early years. As the incident developed, Telegram made a clear separation between $TON and its chain architecture. Therefore, although the two are closely related, they are already two relatively independent individuals in the current situation.
As we all know, the fundamental reason why $TON has received so much market attention in this cycle is its connection with Telegram. The market's good expectations for the future of $TON are also mostly based on the development of Telegram.
Given that this incident has no substantial impact on Telegram's short-term or medium-term operations, I believe that the fundamental logic of $TON has not been impacted.
This accusation has no direct connection with $TON itself
The current Telegram is a bit like an application layer expansion of the TON chain. Imagine if the founder of a Layer2 is arrested, will it affect the fundamentals of Layer1 itself
There may be a certain impact on revenue, but it will definitely not affect the foundation
