One day after Powell's speech, the market's pricing of a 50 basis point rate cut in September gradually dropped from 35% to 24%. Currently, the main pricing is concentrated on a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a probability of 75%.

Maybe the market reaction on Friday was a bit excessive. Now it has calmed down. Next, wait for the next unemployment rate and non-farm data. If there is a turning point, it will rely on the unemployment rate to push.

If the unemployment rate grows faster, it will also lead to the reappearance of recession trading expectations. The best case is to maintain 4.3% or slightly increase to 4.4%. If the unemployment rate falls, the previously prepared rate cut trading expectations will have to be repriced...