Jerome Powell gave a clear signal in his speech that the US Federal Reserve System would begin cutting interest rates. Leaving open only one question - the pace of the reduction.
Key points of the speech:
❗️ - It's time to adjust the policy.
❗️ - My confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path to 2% has increased. Inflation has come down significantly and we are now much closer to the target.
- We have made significant progress in achieving price stability while avoiding a sharp rise in unemployment.
- The timing and pace of interest rate reduction depend on macroeconomic data, forecasts and the balance of risks.
- There is no doubt that the labor market is cooling; we are no longer overheated.
- We have made significant progress towards achieving the goal of ensuring price stability while avoiding a sharp rise in unemployment.
- The risks to the Fed's dual mandate have changed - the likelihood of rising inflation has decreased, but the risk of falling employment has increased.
- We do not seek further cooling of the labor market and do not welcome this process.
- We will do everything possible to support a strong labor market as we continue to move toward price stability.
- The economy continues to grow at a confident pace.
The Wall Street Journal wrote after this speech that “Powell sends strongest signal yet for Fed rate cut.” And#Bloombergwrote that “Powell confirms Fed’s September rate cut, but size of cut remains open.”
Everyone has already seen the rate movement - confident and non-stop growth during the entire speech. The peak reached is $62,320. The market as a whole was also growing. BUT it is difficult to call it a pump. For #BTC, the price did not even reach the next important volume level of $62,987. Growth of only 1.9%. But there is a breakout of the resistance pool in the area of $61,231, there is a breakout of the EMA 50 daily TF - and this is already good. The main thing now is to hold.
Let us recall that in the five-wave growth structure since August 5, the high of the third wave is $62,745. In the least favorable option for the bulls, in the absence of buyers' strength, the correction may begin even with a minimal update of this high. Having formed a truncated fifth wave.
The level of $61,231, we repeat, is now key for continued growth. With all the accompanying supports like the EMA 50-day TF and the pGiP neckline.