Powell's speech tonight is over. Since Powell made the initial speech at tonight's meeting, the speech was relatively short and concise.

The focus of tonight's speech is that Powell has determined to make a monetary interest rate shift, that is, to cut interest rates.

Powell believes that the main reason for changing the interest rate decision is the cooling of the labor market. Powell is worried that too weak will cause more crises, so he thinks it is the right time to make an interest rate change.

However, Powell did not talk more about interest rate cuts tonight, such as whether there is a possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September, and how many times the interest rate will be cut in 2024. The overall extent of the interest rate cut has not been stated, and most importantly, the QT issue has not been mentioned.

So I have reason to believe that Powell is still reserved. The interest rate cut in September is certain, but whether there will be continuous interest rate cuts or large interest rate cuts afterwards cannot see the final result.

In particular, Powell has repeatedly mentioned the crisis brought to the economy and the people by the inflation caused by the epidemic, so Powell is still worried about the inflation caused by too fast interest rate cuts and is relatively conservative.

Things have basically met my previous expectations. The Labor Bureau lowered the data, and Powell took advantage of the situation to start the era of interest rate cuts. Everything seems to be logical, and the market can interpret it as a "defensive interest rate cut."

Summary:

Powell's speech tonight can only be said to be standard, and the interest rate cut signal is clear, but this is already the market expectation, so the bullish force brought may not be obvious enough. At the same time, in the CME swap rate, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut has not been effectively increased too much, and it is still 67.5% at present, indicating that Powell's speech did not bring much data change.

Since it is in line with expectations, as we said in the previous article, we must pay attention to the market Sell the news, and the decline after the surge.

I personally expect this surge to continue to the US stock market, wait for the US stock market to close and then continue to the #BTC☀ side, and then there will be a wave of sprints in the Asian market tomorrow morning, and then the key resistance level may be tested and then fall back.
$BTC