Don't rush to imagine that the market will come, but it won't take off immediately because of a speech. It takes a process.
In short, there is an expected slow rise in interest rate cuts, but it is only because there is no negative situation during this period. When the interest rate cut is confirmed and the interest rate cut arrives, there may be no market reaction to the good news. However, when the water in the reservoir has not increased after the interest rate cut, the market may fall slightly in panic about the recession expectation.
Of course, there is one thing I can tell you with a hammer that the recession will definitely not occur this year, but I can't guarantee whether there will be such emotional speculation. (So how do you consider this point)
But it is inevitable that the interest rate will rise after a period of interest rate cuts. The interest rate cut will not provide sufficient liquidity to the market all at once. The biggest advantage of the interest rate cut is that it completes the last tightening stage of the Federal Reserve. When people see that the market is slightly weak after the interest rate cut, the next step is to release the expected water.
My expectation is that the interest rate cut will be implemented this year, and there will be a crazy inflation trend during the election, and a trend before the recession. After all, the annual financial reports of institutions and whales all depend on the performance of the fourth quarter. Then there may be a recession at the end of Q1 and the beginning of Q2 next year. If there is a recession in the economy, the Fed will definitely release water in the near future. After all, it will not choose to postpone it if it can get out of the predicament as soon as possible.
In the second half of 2025, there will be another wave of inflation and then rest! The script is written, please act next.
