Bitcoin is about to surge? Don't worry! Powell's speech tonight may contain a shocking scam?
At 22:00 tonight, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Will Bitcoin rise or fall? $$
1. Potential impact of Powell's speech
Monetary policy tone: If Powell emphasizes the continued maintenance of tight monetary policy, the market may have negative sentiment towards risky assets such as Bitcoin, reducing its probability of breaking through $62,000
Economic outlook assessment: If Powell shows greater concern about the economic outlook and hints at possible interest rate cuts or looser monetary policies, this may boost market sentiment and increase the possibility of Bitcoin breaking through $62,000
2. The probability of Bitcoin breaking through $62,000
From the technical side and market sentiment, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through $62,000 is not very high
Strong technical resistance: Near $62,000 is an important technical resistance level
Cautious market sentiment: Due to the relatively cautious market sentiment before Powell's speech, investors generally took a wait-and-see attitude, which may suppress the upward momentum of Bitcoin prices
3. Risk Assessment of False Breakouts
A false breakout is when the price briefly breaks through a key resistance level and then quickly falls back. Under the current market conditions, the risk of a false breakout has increased significantly
Increased market volatility: Powell's speech will increase market volatility, and there may be a sharp rise in prices in the short term. Due to the large amount of leveraged trading in the market, once the price breaks through $62,000, a large number of short orders may be forced to close, causing prices to push up further. However, if this rise is driven by short-term factors, the market may quickly pull back and form a false breakout
Investor sentiment fluctuations: The current market sentiment is relatively sensitive and is easily affected by Powell's speech and has short-term extreme reactions. Once the market finds that there is no substantial positive news, investors may quickly sell off, causing prices to fall back
The probability of a false breakout is very high
Combining technical analysis and market sentiment, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through $62,000 tonight is relatively low. Even if a breakthrough occurs, there is a high risk of a false breakout. Contrarian investors should remain vigilant and should not blindly follow up in short-term fluctuations, but should wait for market sentiment to cool before operating. $ETH $SOL #杰克逊霍尔年会 #鲍威尔说了什么 #美联储何时降息？ #走势预测
