Let's look at the situation on the BTC chart after yesterday's positive news from the US Federal Reserve.
The publication of the minutes of the regulator's meeting became the reason for the price growth by 2.9%, at the moment the price reached $61,820. After which the beginning of today gave a correction and leveled out all the growth, but it turned out to be a long squeeze before the continuation of the upward movement (at least for now).
So far there is a breakdown of the downward trend from August 8 and, after the long squeeze, we are seeing a retest of the breakdown on the hourly TFs.
We are not changing our estimates from Monday, August 19 - the priority for this week is growth. Moreover, on the daily TF chart an ascending structure has been established with a maximum target until August 25-27. That is, until next Tuesday.
The#BTCprice volatility index, the growth forecast for which we gave yesterday, today, interestingly, does not even show growth yet. But, we repeat, there is an ascending structure with a prospect until the end of August.
What is important for BTC growth now? Breaking through the resistance pool in the range of $60,800-61,421:
- EMA 200 of the four-hour TF (currently $60,800),
- volume level $61,231,
- level 0.5 according to Fibonacci from the high of March 14 to the low of August 5 - rate $61,388,
- EMA 50 of the daily TF (currently $61,421).
After the breakout of this pool, the bears will begin a full-fledged capitulation, their stop losses and liquidations.
We can say that the breakdown of the downward trend from August 8 is the first step to the start of the local fifth wave of growth. And the breakdown of the pool is already the growth itself in the fifth wave.
We have already said that the range for variants on the length of the fifth wave is wide. But now there is a hint on its length - the entire decline since August 8 is forming pGiP. Its neck level is now at the volume level of $61,231, and the full (!) target, in case of a breakout in the near future, is around $66,773. You can get your bearings on the intermediate targets on the screen - these are trend and volume levels.
Moreover, even a noticeable growth to $66,773 is not even close to testing the downward trend since March 14, the breakout of which would be a signal to exit the 161-day (!) range in the downward channel and the start of the global fifth wave of growth in this cycle.
