Views on the current cryptocurrency market:
Since August last year, there have been many irrational fluctuations after the New York market opened, and now it is becoming more and more obvious. I have talked about this many times before. I call this phenomenon Americanization.
Some people may call this situation a dog dealer, but in fact, this matter is of great significance to Bitcoin. It means that institutions are more involved than before, and more funds are involved in Bitcoin transactions during New York time. This also means that Bitcoin as an asset is gradually approaching a mature market.
In the short term, it may be very difficult to trade. After all, technical analysis is not as advantageous as it was in 2018, 2019, or 20. 21 years. Patience is needed, otherwise it will become a victim of liquidity.
But in the long run, this is not a bad thing. It means that the market cycle will be very long, that is, there may not be the very long-term unilateral decline and the bear market with small fluctuations at the bottom.
In other words, we may be in a long-term slow bull market, and the bear market will most likely only occur in altcoins, which is caused by the shortage of liquidity.
A few months ago, the meme sector exploded, the sol chain dog craze, and the VC coins were boycotted by retail investors a while ago. Until these days, retail investors have gradually changed from PVP of memes on the sol/eth chain to PVP of small coins with low market value in the BN contract market, such as rare, sys, and even many NFTs are now starting to move.
This kind of capital rotation also highlights the more serious problem of liquidity shortage in the entire currency circle. Which of these VC institutions and big funds does not want to see the big bull market in the last round? After all, there are more leeks to cut and fewer people to complain.
And the bear market in the alt market is definitely inseparable from such liquidity shortage. If most of the value alt markets do not have substantial benefits and stock user growth, they are likely to be in a cyclical bear market.
So don’t be too entangled in the small-cycle market, focus on the most mainstream currencies, and look at the long term. We can no longer use the cycle of the last bull and bear alt season to look at the current market.
