The Bitcoin network completed its fourth halving on April 20 this year, with the block reward reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. However, four months later, Bitcoin prices still have not risen significantly, which has led the market to question whether the historical trend of rising prices after halving still applies.
In the past, in the years of halving, the price of Bitcoin would usher in a big bull market after the halving. However, as of today, the price of Bitcoin is still lower than the price on the day of halving. We can refer to the historical bull markets after the halving of Bitcoin to speculate when this market will come:
In November 2012, when the first halving occurred, the price of Bitcoin was $12.35. 48 days after the halving, a big bull market began and the price increased by 93 times.
In July 2016, when the second halving occurred, the price of Bitcoin was $638.19. The bull run began 105 days after the halving, and the price increased 30 times.
In May 2020, at the time of the third halving, the price of Bitcoin was $8,566.77. The bull run came 148 days after the halving, and the price increased by 8 times.
In April 2024, when the fourth halving occurred, the price of Bitcoin was $63,825.87, and it rose to a high of $71,997, but then the price continued to decline and is currently $60,506.1.
When will Bitcoin start a new bull market?
According to data, the value of Bitcoin in miners' wallets has decreased by nearly $9 billion since the halving in 2024. Miners are the cornerstone of the Bitcoin network, responsible for processing transactions and ensuring the security of the blockchain. Miners are paid in Bitcoin, but due to the price drop, they need to sell more Bitcoin to remain profitable. This may also be one of the main factors that have delayed the start of the bull market. $BTC
It has been 4 months since the Bitcoin halving. Based on historical experience, the bull market may start within the next one or two months.
However, it should be noted that although the virtual currency market has its own bull and bear cycles, history is not a simple repetition. Although the overall market trends after each halving cycle show certain similarities, there are also differences.
The most noteworthy point is that the price increase of Bitcoin in each market cycle will be lower than the previous one, which means that although the bull market may arrive as expected in half a year, the increase may not reach the level of the previous few times.
