Economic calendar of events from August 19-25 that could impact the crypto market.
There were no important events yesterday, but the key event of the whole week is obvious and we wrote about it - the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, on August 23 at the economic symposium of the heads of the world's central banks in Jackson Hole.
Historically, these speeches in 2022 and 2023 have set the vector for market movement. The event itself will run from August 22 to 24, with additional statements possible. But Powell is key. Markets are waiting for him to give signals on interest rate cuts. If they do, we can expect growth. These expectations have not yet been factored into the schedule.
Plus, tomorrow, August 21, the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve will be published. This event usually does not cause increased volatility, but the excitement in anticipation of a rate cut and fears about the risks of a recession are now higher than usual. Therefore, it is worth keeping in mind.
Also this week - a number of signals on national currencies included in the formula for calculating the US Dollar Index DXY (which has an inverse correlation with risky asset markets). On the Swedish krona, euro, Canadian dollar, pound sterling. Let us briefly recall that the strengthening of national currencies from the index basket means a weakening of the dollar. We will analyze the situation on the DXY chart separately this week and update the picture.
Full list of important events for the week:
Monday, August 19:
Speech by US Federal Reserve member Waller (a permanent member, closer to the "hawkish" rhetoric and with the right to vote). There were no surprises or significant statements.
Tuesday, August 20:
- 04:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 06:00 Astana time - The People's Bank of China's base lending rate. Remains the same. Important for assessing the risks of a crisis in China and for assessing the situation in the global economy.
- 10:30 Kyiv and Moscow time / 12:30 Astana time - Bank of Sweden interest rate decision. Reduced from 3.75% to 3.5%. On the one hand, it confirms the trend of central banks to reduce the rate, on the other hand, the Swedish krona is included in the formula for calculating the US Dollar Index DXY.
- 12:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 14:00 Astana time - Core Consumer Price Index and European Central Bank Consumer Price Index. The data show that consumer inflation in the European Union has increased slightly, but within the forecast. The euro is also included in the DXY calculation formula and occupies an important place there.
- 15:30 Kyiv and Moscow time / 17:30 Astana time - Core Consumer Price Index and Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index. Also important for DXY.
- 20:35 Kyiv and Moscow time / 22:35 Astana time - Speech by US Federal Reserve member Bostic (a member with “dovish” rhetoric and the right to vote).
- 21:45 Kyiv and Moscow time / 23:45 Astana time - Speech by US Federal Reserve member, Deputy Chairman for Supervision Barr (permanent chairman).
Wednesday, August 21:
❗️ - 21:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 23:00 Astana time - Publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting on July 31. As always - three weeks after the meeting. This is the Fed's detailed position on monetary policy and prospects for raising the interest rate. There will be volatility if unexpected details appear.
Thursday, August 22:
- 11:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 13:00 Astana time - EU Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI. Important for assessing the risks of recession in the Eurozone.
- 15:30 Kyiv and Moscow time / 17:30 Astana time - Publication of the minutes of the ECB monetary policy meeting. Important for assessing the risks of recession in the Eurozone and due to DXY.
❗️- 15:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 17:00 Astana time - Start of the symposium in Jackson Hole.
❗️- 15:30 Kyiv and Moscow time / 17:30 Astana time - Weekly number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US. The labor market is important for the US Federal Reserve's actions on the interest rate and, now, for assessing the risks of a recession. The situation is the same - if applications are lower than forecast, this can pull the markets up, as in the previous week. Because this reduces the risks of a recession.
- 16:45 Kyiv and Moscow time / 18:45 Astana time - US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
❗️- 23:30 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 01:30 new day Astana time - US Federal Reserve Balance Sheet. Here, optimally, it would still be good to see a relaxation of the quantitative easing (QT) policy. Last week even showed an increase in the balance. But the markets need to see the trend. So far it is towards a decrease in the balance.
Friday, August 23:
❗️- 15:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 17:00 Astana time - Continuation of the symposium in Jackson Hole.
❗️- 17:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 19:00 Astana time - Speech by Fed Chairman Powell.
- 18:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 20:00 Astana time - Speech by Bank of England Governor Bailey. Important for the pound sterling, which is included in the DXY formula.
