There is a signal in the recent market that is worth paying attention to. A few days ago, the United States announced the CPI, which was lower than market expectations. It was obviously a positive factor, but the bitcoin price did not rise but fell instead, which is puzzling!
In fact, if you think about it carefully, this problem is not difficult to explain. The current financial pressure caused by the US interest rate hike is already unbearable, and interest rate cuts are the general trend. The market expectations for a rate cut in September have been fully raised, and the only difference is a cut of 25 points or 50 points.
We have talked about what interest rate cuts are long ago. Interest rate cuts are a means of solving problems and a regulatory tool when signs of economic recession appear. Therefore, the market's sensitivity has shifted from interest rate cuts to concerns about economic recession. With this explanation, it is easy for everyone to understand why Mr. Ba wants to sell off a large number of US stocks and hold a huge amount of cash, and understand the logic of why the market ignores good news and falls instead. The next data will be very critical. If the interest rate is cut by 50 points, the signal is self-evident, and funds will continue to flee in a hurry. If it is 25 points, it will be relatively mild.
Overall, the weekly line of Bitcoin closed with a long needle, and it is very likely to close with a cross star this week. The meaning of stopping the decline is still quite obvious. At least in the short term, it will not kill the bottom of the needle again. However, the pressure above 60000 and 62800 is also huge, so the time for shock repair here will be relatively longer, and the market is in a wait-and-see mood. Due to the bleak market, the mood in the circle is low, and some friends have even changed tracks. From this indicator, it can also be used as evidence of the bottom range of the market. Looking at the on-chain indicators again, stablecoins have been inflowing recently, and CME positions are at a high level and are still growing, which is in stark contrast to the coldness in the circle. Judging from this point of view, after the garbage time wears out everyone's will, the market should have a good performance.
In the long run, the market is still worried about economic recession during the interest rate cut cycle. We must also be prepared to face the psychological expectation of another sudden appearance of a black swan. In the medium and short term, the probability of a rebound is still relatively high. Those who are trapped in their chips should consider exiting after the rebound, and those who are short should not be in a hurry. In anticipation of the black swan, watch more and do less. In case of a sharp drop, intervene boldly.
Finally, those who have heavy positions in Sol Ecosystem should pay attention. It is currently rumored online that Solana’s ETF application has been withdrawn because the previous application documents cannot be found on CBOE. Vanda and other institutions have not yet officially responded. If there is no clarification on Monday, it may face short-term negative pressure. We continue to be optimistic in the long run!
