The following are the research reports of several futures companies exclusively compiled by Jinshi Futures APP, for reference only

European Line

Transaction logic: Maersk has been lowering freight rates recently; Middle East geopolitical factors have also caused expectations for resumption of flights to fluctuate; ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas will begin in Doha on Thursday and will last for several days; shipping capacity supply has increased

Risk factors: Disruption in the Red Sea region will continue until at least the end of 2024; Iran and Hezbollah’s retaliation may take the form of assassinations; China-EU trade policy faces uncertainty; Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (comprehensive index) rose 27.47 points compared with the previous period

Focus on events: freight rate adjustments by shipping companies; whether Palestine and Israel can successfully cease fire; changes in SCFI European freight rate index, etc.

Palm Oil

Trading logic: Malaysian palm oil production in July increased by 13.97% from the previous month to 1.841 million tons; Malaysian palm oil exports in August fell month-on-month, and it is difficult for the terminal to have a significant boost; the EU's palm oil imports in 2024/25 were 290,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease; commercial palm oil inventories in key areas across the country increased from last week

Risk factors: Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of July decreased by 5.35% to 1.7332 million tons; SPPOMA data showed that Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.56% from August 1 to 10; India's palm oil imports in July increased by 37% month-on-month to 1.1 million tons; Indonesian palm oil supply is tight

Focus on events: Malaysia's palm oil exports, high-frequency data on production; Indonesia's adjustment of palm oil export policy; weather in related oil-producing areas; domestic palm oil inventory, etc.

Lithium carbonate

Trading logic: The social inventory and warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate are still gradually accumulating and have exceeded the previous high; corporate orders are reduced; buyer customers are digesting the supply slowly and have little intention to purchase raw materials; a large factory in Qinghai is releasing goods in a centralized manner

Risk factors: Demand may continue to grow in August; some non-integrated lithium salt plants have plans to reduce production and destock due to cost pressure; Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China in July fell month-on-month; the peak season in September and October is expected to rise again, and downstream battery manufacturers choose to buy at low prices when prices are right

Focus on events: whether the willingness of upstream lithium salt plants to maintain prices has weakened; macro and futures market trends; supply disturbances of large mines and lithium salt enterprises, downstream reserve demand, etc.

soda ash

Trading logic: The soda ash plant that was overhauled earlier resumed operation, and the overall operation has rebounded; the float glass and photovoltaic glass production lines were shut down for maintenance, and the rigid demand for soda ash continued to decline; the warehouse receipt inventory continued to increase to 11,192, the highest since its listing; this week, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.1483 million tons, an increase of 9,700 tons from Monday

Risk factors: The soda ash maintenance plan has increased; the accumulation of soda ash plants is expected to slow down; the soda ash production was 680,400 tons, a decrease of 63,500 tons from the previous month

Focus on events: spot trends and follow-up order receipt; downstream photovoltaic glass cold repair situation; soda ash manufacturers' inventory changes and profit changes, etc.

Iron Ore

Trading logic: Concerns about negative feedback from production cuts intensify, and ore demand continues to weaken; the average daily molten iron output of steel mills continues to decline, reaching a low of nearly 4 months; the total demand for the five major steel varieties fell by 76,800 tons week-on-week; the market reported that Tangshan’s 2024 crude steel production control work plan is based on the 2023 target reduction

Risk factors: Iron ore shipments and arrivals have declined, and supply-side pressure has eased; there may be some expectations of demand recovery in September; domestic mine production is weak and stable; the total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports across the country has dropped by 88,600 tons month-on-month

Focus on events: implementation of steel mill production cuts; changes in inventory and output; changes in raw material prices; expectations of downstream peak season speculation, etc.

Soybean meal

Trading logic: Rainfall in the US producing areas in the next week is conducive to crop growth; the planting area was unexpectedly increased and the yield was higher than market expectations, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of US soybeans was further strengthened; the quality rate of US soybeans was 66%, the highest level since 2020; China's weekly soybean meal inventory increased month-on-month

Risk factors: Domestic ports are destocking soybeans and oil mills are destocking soybean meal; as of August 8, the net sales of soybean meal in the United States for 2023/24 were 11% higher than last week; the soybean purchase volume and progress in the fourth quarter were both lower than expected; pig prices strengthened this week

Focus: Whether the super-high yield and area of ​​U.S. soybeans can be realized; whether the soybean planting in South America will be smooth after September; the weather in the main soybean producing areas of the United States; the operating rate of domestic oil mills and the arrival volume of imported soybeans, etc.

crude

Trading logic: The Fed's expected rate cut will boost fuel demand; the US CPI fell more than expected in July, up 2.9% year-on-year; Iran and Hezbollah's retaliation may take the form of assassination

Risk factors: The tension in the Middle East has eased temporarily; EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly accumulated, and US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.36 million barrels month-on-month; China's crude oil imports in July were 42.337 million tons, down 9% month-on-month

Focus on events: changes in geopolitical factors; changes in U.S. and global crude oil inventories; U.S. economic data, whether the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates, etc.

Disclaimer

The information in this article is compiled from public sources. This article strives to provide accurate and reliable information, but no guarantees are made as to the accuracy and completeness of this information. This article does not constitute personal investment advice. Investors are responsible for their own investment decisions based on this information.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data