The market has been very volatile recently, but Andrew Slimmon of Morgan Stanley Investment Management has his own views on the market's future direction. He said that after the sharp fluctuations in the past few weeks, the market may be "consistent with 2023". In late July, the US 500 and Nasdaq both plunged to their lowest point since 2022, and then rebounded. Global markets, including the United States, sold off sharply last week and rebounded this week. Slimmon expects that after the sell-off in August, the market may see a "restorative rebound" in mid-September, but then it may fall again and bottom in October.
Slimmon noted that the market is currently in a recovery rally because recent inflation data has been "mild" enough, which has led to widespread expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. He explained that the market mainly rewarded companies with the best earnings expectations in the first half of this year, and these winners were hit hardest in the sell-off in July and August - but now is a "perfect opportunity" to refocus on these companies.
“Maybe it’s some of the AI stocks that were really hot in June ... so I think we’re in a delicate period right now,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.” “But I think going into the fourth quarter, you should hold on to the stocks that did well in the first half of the year and I think they’ll come back strong, which is a good thing for active management,” he added.
Slimmon's Morgan Stanley U.S. Core Fund is up 18.03% year to date, outperforming the S&P 500's 14.89%. He also manages the Morgan Stanley Global Core Fund, which is up 14.68% this year, also outperforming the MSCI World Index's 11.54%.
Despite the market's volatility, Slimmon believes the S&P 500 could fall further over the next month but ultimately end the year "close" to 6,000. The index closed Thursday at 5,543.22.
“I’m trying to screen for the companies that have the best fundamental performance that have sold off and pulled back recently… So there’s an opportunity to upgrade your portfolio fundamentally, to the companies that have the best earnings expectations, the best fundamentals,” he said.
Slimmon also mentioned some companies that performed well after their second-quarter earnings reports but have underperformed since then, and recommended four stocks: Nvidia (NVDA.O), Amazon (AMZN.O), TSMC (TSM.N) and Novo Nordisk (NVO.N).
Nvidia's stock has surged on the artificial intelligence boom, but has been volatile recently, with shares partially rebounding from this year's highs. Slimmon believes now is a "good opportunity" - provided the stock doesn't rise further. "The stock has been weak recently compared to the S&P 500," he said. "So it's a very good situation now."
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data