Interpretation of macro data on August 15: Retail sales soared in July, is the economy in recession? Then let's have a "reassurance"! The surprising "defensive" interest rate cut of 25% in September is now a foregone conclusion! Necessary conditions for a "soft landing" of the economy!
Tonight's US retail sales data for July can be described as "unexpected", with the previous value of -0.1%, the expected value of 0.3%, and the published value of 1%.
The data has increased significantly. As I said before, while inflation has declined, the demand side has not weakened but has strengthened. This set of data indicates the healthy operation of the US economy.
At the same time, with the support of this set of data, the economic recession that the market had previously worried about seems to have lost its basis in terms of data. At least in terms of data, the US economy remains strong.
At the same time, this data also continues to consolidate the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September. Really, I have a feeling that this data is the preliminary preparation for the Federal Reserve's defensive interest rate cut in September.
The risk market correction brought about by a "defensive" interest rate cut amid a stable U.S. economy will inevitably be mild. On the contrary, the economic recession and economic weakening theories brought about by various previous data will not be milder than the current one if an interest rate cut is followed by such data, whether it is a 25% or 50% cut.
Remember what I said before, what is a soft landing of the economy?
Economic growth has slowed down, the job market has cooled down moderately, inflation has been controlled and declined in an orderly manner, while people's consumption desire has increased instead of decreased, inflation has been reduced by supply-side pressure relief, and financial markets have stabilized. All of these are necessary conditions for a soft landing. At present, the "defensive" interest rate cut under the stability of the US economy is not defensive at all, and it also has a certain moderate effect on the financial market. All of this is in preparation for a soft landing of the economy!
Of course, the accelerated rebound in consumption data can be seen from the detailed data, most of the credit is still brought by the recovery of automobile sales data, of course, other aspects do have certain growth. Whether consumption data can continue to maintain strong growth still depends on the data in August.
Data impact:
The data is good for the US economy and the US dollar (good in the short term, but in an interest rate cut environment, the US dollar will still fall). It is bad for US bonds in the short term and good for#USstocks. At the same time, it drives the crypto space, which is also a risk market.
rise.
However, for the rise of #BTC, the most optimistic scenario is that it can reach around 61,100.
At the same time, the economic data is bearish for US bonds in the short term, but once the market digests the data, the risk market returns to the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the price of US bonds will still rise. Especially after the data is released, the next short-term decline of gold is currently rebounding rapidly. The market is digesting the economic data, which will not take too long.
At the same time, the data is consistent with my previous expectations, which once again pushes up the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Currently, the probability has soared to 74.5% (it has fallen from 76.5 just now), and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 25.5%.
Although the probability of a 25% rate cut has been pushed up infinitely, it does not mean that the probability of a 50% rate cut will not occur. However, the probability of a 50% rate cut again is not a good thing for the risk market.
Judging from the current pace, there are two possible events that may increase the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut. One is that the internal data continues to decline, leading to the possibility of economic instability. The other is external factors. The external economy triggers global financial and economic tensions. In order to prevent sudden negative shocks in the future, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut will be pushed up.
As for another data released during the same period, the number of initial unemployment claims fell to 227,000 that week, the lowest level since early July. This data shows that the economic recession caused by the short-term deterioration in the job market has gradually subsided. This data can be regarded as positive data to supplement today's retail rate data.
$BTC
