Welcome the terrifying data tonight and aim for the entry time!
Thursday, August 15, 2024
From being highly anticipated to being calm, the CPI data is in line with expectations and there are no surprises. US technology stocks are mediocre. The number of initial claims and the terrifying data tonight may be a roller coaster to set the tone for this week.
The big cake rose and fell, and continued to consolidate. The entry position anchored by long-term and short-term investors may become the support range for the callback.
1. The US CPI in July basically met expectations and there were no surprises. The market performed mediocre
1. The year-on-year growth of 2.9% in July CPI was slightly lower than expected, and the year-on-year growth of 3.2% in the core CPI was in line with expectations. For the market that has been positioned as dovish, the results are somewhat disappointing. US stocks rose slightly, and technology stocks performed mediocrely.
2. The data did not change the Fed's expectation of a 25-point rate cut in September, and did not give them a reason to cut interest rates by 50 points. The surprise of a sharp rate cut will also depend on the number of initial claims tonight and the next non-agricultural data.
3. At 20:30 on Thursday night, the United States will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week + July retail sales data, which is known as "horror data". There may be large fluctuations tonight.
2. On-chain/off-chain data
1. On-chain data shows that during this round of callback, 61000~62000 is the most densely traded area, and this range will be a short-term pressure range.
2. Off-chain data shows that the buy order wall of the exchange shows that buying intentions have begun to appear below 56000, mainly concentrated in the 52000~54000 range. The current pressure range of 61000~62000 is mainly the selling pressure of short-term investors who are bottom-fishing in this round of decline. More sell order walls will appear from 64000 and have a strong willingness to sell.
3. Hot coins
1. BANANA: Binance is about to launch U-based perpetual contracts
2. ARKM, PIXEL, BOME, DOGS: OKX will launch spot trading
3. PYTH: Cooperate with TON to provide data sources for its ecosystem developers
4. HOOK: Will soon join Telegram and TON ecosystems
4. Market tone
1. BTC: Continue to consolidate, consolidation range 58000~62000. The probability of breaking through pressure in the short term is small, and if there is a large negative economic data, the probability of a callback to 54000~52000 is high.
