August 15, 2024

The market continued to adjust. This trend was originally strong. When it fell below 60,000, it was accompanied by some bad news. One was that the US government transferred Bitcoin to a new address, and the other was that Mentougou transferred Bitcoin to OK. The former is currently only likely to be managed, and the latter is basically shipping, but the shipment volume is not large, and the market performance is a retracement and decline.

With the current market liquidity, the threat from Mentougou and the US government is not small. Once a large-scale sell-off is confirmed, the market will experience another wave of painful decline. If the black swan outside the circle is the US stock market, then the biggest factor for the decline in the circle is the big pie in Mentougou, but fortunately there is not much negative news at present.

In terms of price, Bitcoin needs to return to above 65,000 and fluctuate repeatedly before it has a chance to break through the high point, but the current capital and sentiment conditions are not met. At present, my judgment on the market is that it will break through after the fluctuations. On the contrary, if it fluctuates for a long time without signs of a breakthrough, then we should actively reduce our positions.

In fact, our most important task now is still to get more chips. The key issue is whether the market will continue to fall or even have a black swan crash. If you are sure that it is not a black swan, then lighten your position or even wait for empty positions. If you think the probability is not high, then buy more now. For those positions that have been bought early and have not yet recovered, you can continue to hold them. The rise is nothing more than a matter of time.

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