Today, the two markets traded 477.45 billion yuan, an increase of 200 million yuan compared to yesterday, with a median of -0.77%. The northbound foreign capital channel had a net sale of 7.166 billion yuan in a single day. As a result, the cumulative net outflow in 2024 has reached more than 10 billion yuan. This is a situation that has not been encountered in the 9 years since the opening of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect. Foreign capital has changed from the main net long position in previous years to a net short position, which is a loss of 200-300 billion yuan in a year.
There are more than 1.7 trillion yuan of foreign capital in the northbound channel. The authorities should find ways to stabilize their confidence. If these 1.7 trillion yuan also seek to exit one after another, the selling pressure on A-shares will be very heavy. This is the metaphysics of A-shares. Foreigners bought 2 trillion yuan and did not move forward. Foreigners sold 200 billion yuan and there was chaos. You can think about the reason yourself.
The limited funds in the market all went to the AI glasses concept sector today. The trigger was that Apple was reported to launch new AR glasses, including a cheap Vision Pro and the subsequent Vision Pro 2nd generation. This news made the investors full of imagination about the future of smart glasses devices. It happened that this sector consisted of small companies, so there was no need to worry about a big selling pressure when speculating, so many hot money did it.
I said in the evening report a few days ago that folding screens will not be the long-term development direction. The best way to improve the display experience must be to work on glasses. This is not a fancy idea, but a deduction based on the development path of audio equipment.
Sound was originally played on external speakers, but no matter how you improve the performance of speakers, they are ultimately inferior to the overall effect and cost-effectiveness of in-ear headphones, because the latter are closer to the ears and only require a small output to fill the hearing. Similarly, if you want to achieve the ultimate visual effect and cost-effectiveness, the best way is to get the screen as close to the eyes as possible, that is, glasses.
Google's Glass and Apple's Vision Pro are both trying to find a breakthrough in this direction, but due to hardware and software limitations, they are currently unable to produce a phenomenal product. But I guess it's not far away, and they will become hits at any time within three to five years.
Saying this does not mean that I am optimistic about the concept of AI glasses in A-shares in the long run. At present, there is nothing but emotional speculation, and in such a bad liquidity environment, the cycle of emotional speculation will not be long.
Oh, by the way, a few days ago someone asked me how the sales of foldable screen phones were going. Last year, the sales were 7 million units. China’s total mobile phone shipments were 289 million, accounting for about 2.4%.
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Another hot topic today is that Tencent released its semi-annual report, with second-quarter revenue of 161.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and adjusted net profit of 57.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53%.
At first glance, you can see that profit growth is higher than revenue growth because Tencent has implemented cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures internally. Costs fell by 4% year-on-year, and saving this 4% increased gross profit growth by nearly 20%.
Tencent's three main businesses have all resumed growth. The highlight of the advertising business is the rapid growth of video accounts, +19%; the highlight of the value-added business is the growth of both domestic and foreign games, +2%; financial technology and enterprise services also achieved +4% in the second quarter.
In the first half of the year, Tencent repurchased HK$52.3 billion of shares, and cancelled all 154 million shares. Given the company's financial situation, it can continue to maintain this level of repurchases in the second half of the year, resulting in a total of 100 billion shares cancelled throughout the year, accounting for about 3% of the total circulating shares.
This ratio of repurchase is enough to stabilize the market's confidence and prevent it from being hit by selling, but it may not be enough to pull it up in the current environment. I just looked at Tencent ADR in the US stock market. It fell instead of rising tonight. Sure enough, this financial report is still not good. We have to increase the dosage.
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1. The increase of China's 30-year main contract expanded to 1%, and rebounded again. This is also something that makes me laugh in recent days. Many people are against the central bank. When the leader wants to pick up food, a group of ignorant people below are desperately turning the table.
The regulatory authorities have already begun to use administrative power to crack down on these people, but these people are still taking advantage of every opportunity to go long. I have read reports that some non-bank institutions would rather buy government bonds at a premium than avoid regulation. They will specify in their purchase orders that they do not want big banks to be their counterparties, because regulators require big banks to record information on counterparties of government bond transactions.
I have not sold the bond funds I have for the time being. I am waiting and seeing which is the arm and which is the thigh between administrative power and market power.
2. The domestic game "Black Myth Wukong" will be officially released on August 20. The pre-sale has reached 1.2 million copies, with sales of nearly 400 million yuan. This result is not bad, but it mainly depends on the reputation after the official launch and the subsequent sales. This game has been developed for several years and cost 400 million yuan. At least 3 million copies must be sold to make money. It is not enough to rely on domestic buyers alone, and it is also necessary to encourage the participation of foreign players.
3. The US CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year in July, in line with market expectations and falling for the fourth consecutive month. Currently, there is little change in the judgment of the Fed on the rate cut. Most still believe that the first rate cut will be in September, but fewer and fewer people believe that the rate cut will be 50 basis points, because it seems that the US economic recession is not very obvious.
That's all for tonight.