Key events for BTC today are developing on the four-hour TF. Where yesterday the bulls managed to break through the resistance pool in the form of EMA 50 of the four-hour TF and the volume level of $59,335 and return the price above the psychological $60,000. Plus they broke through the downward trend from August 8.
Let us recall that we expected the price to first go to test the volume level of $57,709 and then go above $62,000. Instead, the price first went to $61,578 and after a small correction, the bulls are trying to break through the volume level of $61,231. Despite the fact that they succeeded in the last hours, the key resistance is currently higher - EMA 200 of the four-hour TF (currently at $61,722). It was just tested ahead of the data on consumer inflation in the US, but was not broken.
If there is no breakout with consolidation above this resistance on the next two four-hour candles (not counting the current one), we will wait for a correction. This will be a signal that the breakout of the downward trend from August 8 was false. In this case, we will first wait for a correction in the area of $59,335-59,980. The first price is a volume level, the second is the current level of EMA 50 of the four-hour TF. There, the situation will need to be re-evaluated.
For now, we still expect the price to go down around $57,709 before rising above $62,000. The idea of waiting for movement in the fifth wave is relevant. And it will be relevant as long as the price is above $56,276. The structure can be considered completed after the breakout of the high of the third wave of $62,745. There, again, it will be necessary to re-evaluate. A small over-high of $62,745 is a scenario of a truncated fifth wave. But in general, we repeat, the range of growth targets is wide, taking into account trend, volume levels and Fibonacci levels - from $64,120 to $69,000.
An alternative scenario for us is if the breakout of the EMA 200 of the four-hour TF does take place. In this case, an exit to the fifth wave and a move above $62,745 from the current ones may occur. At the moment, this is not a priority scenario for us. Even though the price is currently above the downward trend since August 8, this is a chance that the fifth wave is already starting.
On the daily TF, after growth yesterday and today, the price returned to the range between EMA 50 and 200 of the daily TF. Exit to one of the sides will be a signal for traders and can cause an impulse towards the breakout.
