A week has passed since Black Monday. How many people still remember what happened that day?
On August 5, 2024, the market plummeted without warning, and the bulls were killed and defeated.
In the following days, many people tried to find a reason for the plunge.
Then they turned out a series of arguments such as "Japanese yen interest rate hike recession theory" and "Sam's rule" to prove that the United States was going to be finished and collapsed, causing market panic.
In fact, the positive correlation between data and results does not mean that there is a causal relationship. We cannot make "sufficient reasoning", after all, the complexity of the global economy is far beyond our cognitive scope.
In 2018, we were still living in the fantasy of "TikTok recording a beautiful life". Every day was perfect, and the social atmosphere was vibrant. Standing in that year to imagine, everyone would have a perfect future. It has only been a few years, and it seems that everyone has adapted to this patchwork world. The real recession is to let everyone adapt without any preparation, and the real recovery will not tell you in advance when it will start.
The bull market will not tell you clearly when it will start. I only know where the masses will go. I will do time arbitrage based on the principle of starting from the end and wait for the masses to come. As for what posture they use and how many twists and turns there are in the middle, I don’t care
