CPI carnival tonight?
PPI was positive last night, and both US stocks and bonds rose sharply, with $BTC rising by more than 3,000 points.
The market is confident that CPI on Wednesday may achieve a carnival night, and the big cake will also rise. Although the amplitude may be limited, short sellers should still be careful.
1. Fundamentals: Data-driven trend
1. The PPI data first released on Tuesday night set a more optimistic tone for the financial market, and both the US stock and bond markets ushered in a big rise. Data showed that the US PPI annual rate and monthly rate in July were lower than expected, and the month-on-month growth and year-on-year growth were lower than the increase in June, and at the same time, it was the smallest year-on-year increase since March this year.
2. At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday (August 14), the United States released the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which will become a critical moment for the financial market. The market is full of confidence, and 52% of investors expect CPI inflation data to be weak, which is good for risk markets and will trigger "risk preference".
3. Concerns about the US recession are still there, but more data is needed to verify. Before there is more data to confirm the inevitable economic recession, the market will focus on interest rate cuts, and inflation data lower than expected will benefit the risk market. There is no narrative to tell in the currency market at present, and more will follow the fluctuations of US stocks.
2. Market tone
1. BTC: Even if CPI is positive, it is difficult to change the consolidation in the short term. The caution of short-term participants leads to insufficient liquidity, and it is difficult to start a new round of big gains.
2. ETH: Grayscale has sold nearly 380,000 coins, accounting for nearly half of the total, and buying and selling will gradually tend to balance. The first net inflow of Auntie's weekly fund flow is also a signal that ETFs may bring about an increase, so be cautious about shorting.
