Currently, Bitcoin is recuperating and repairing itself at its own pace. It has pulled back and fluctuated at the 4-hour level and has now reached the upper resistance level of around 62,000.
If 62,000 can effectively stabilize, then the next test will be around 70,000. Everyone must not be careless. The market only lasts for a few months, so this period of time is the best time to participate.
Why hasn’t the bull market come yet after the halving?
Before discussing the price of Bitcoin, you need to understand three "laws" related to price.
1. Price fluctuations are related to capital inflows and outflows
2.95% of the gains occur 5% of the time
3. Bitcoin’s short-term computing power determines its price, while in the long run, price determines its computing power
At present, Bitcoin has completed its fourth halving. First, let’s review the historical highs and major historical events after the second halving in 2016:
2017ATH 19500——2017/12/17
On December 7, 2017, the BTC futures of the US Commodity Futures Exchange CBOE officially started trading, and the price at that time was 16616
2019 high point 13850——2019/6/26
On June 18, 2019, Facebook (now Meta) announced the launch of a new crypto stablecoin, Libra.
The first ATH 65000 in 2021——2021/4/14
Coinbase IPO will be launched on April 14, 2021
The second ATH in 2021 is 66,000——2021/11/10
On October 17, 2021, the SEC approved Proshares' BTC futures ETF, and on November 11, 2021, the SEC rejected Van Eck's BTC spot ETF application.
Let’s review the time points when Bitcoin prices rose rapidly over the past 23 years:
2023/1/1 – 2023/1/15 The reason for the increase is unknown
2023/1/21 – New Year’s Eve
2023/3/12 – SVB collapsed, and the Fed released money to save the market.
2023/6/15 – BlackRock submits application for Bitcoin spot ETF.
2023/9/29 – The SEC begins publicly collecting public opinions on Bitcoin ETFs.
2023/10/16 – Cointelegraph released FAKE NEWS on its official Twitter account, saying that the SEC approved the ETF.
2023/10/23 – The official website of the US custody and clearing company DTCC displays the BlackRock BTC ETF code IBTC.
Finally, let’s take a look at the various top time points over the past 24 years:
2024/1/10 – 49000 - BTC ETF launch day
2024/3/12 – 73000 – It’s been one year since SVB Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, and the Federal Reserve’s one-year bailout loan expires.
From the rapid rise in the 5% time mentioned above and the time of the top and major events, it is not difficult to see that Bitcoin has gradually become a toy of the Federal Reserve and Wall Street since before the second halving.
The price rise is due to a large number of Wall Street insider trading buying a large number of low-priced cakes (there is no impenetrable wall, and rumors began to appear in the market - Buy the rumor), and running away on the day when the good news was realized (Sell the news)
To sum up, because the rise and fall of prices is only related to the inflow and outflow of funds, there will be no bull market without large-scale insider trading and external liquidity release. How can there be a bull market without money flowing in?
September is the month of interest rate cuts, and it will soon be the month of September. Can the fourth quarter usher in a bull market?
The Federal Reserve said that a rate cut is coming soon, and BlackRock's chief investment officer also expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its September meeting. Basically, everyone's expectations for a rate cut have begun to be reflected in the market;
The current market lacks two things: liquidity + hot spots
Essentially, there is only one thing missing, which is liquidity, because hot spots are something that can be manipulated manually. Once liquidity is established, hot spots will not be a problem;
We are optimistic about Q4 and 2025. Liquidity will improve, and coupled with the election, Bitcoin will at least break through 100,000 during this period!
As for altcoins, an external agency also recently stated in a new article: Altcoins will only return after Bitcoin and Ethereum break through $70,000 and $4,000 respectively.
Bitcoin and Ethereum's year-end rally driven by USD liquidity will lay a solid foundation for the sexy altcoin carnival to return.
Therefore, before the next big rise, all our actions should still be to observe, buy, and wait!
Can BTC break through 100,000 USD in the later stage of this bull market?
First, one fact that is certain is that the U.S. economy has begun to decline. Whether it is a short-term recession or a medium- to long-term recession depends on who will be in power in this election.
Second, combined with all the previous data, if there is a black swan event in the future, it is normal for BTC to fall back to $44,000-$46,000, and don't be surprised. The very important support level is: 38,000.
Third, the final crazy bull market may be coming, and it will start after September next year. The minimum price for this round is 100,000. If it rushes to more than 100,000, don’t be surprised. This price will attract more leeks to enter the market.
Fourth, remember: you must do a good job of position planning and management. All leverage, contracts, and loans should not exceed 35%. There are many opportunities to make money in this circle. The competition is not about who runs faster, but who can survive longer in this circle.
