#今日市场观点
As Iran continues to act ruthlessly, Russia urgently evacuates 180,000 citizens.
As the global situation becomes more turbulent, especially the recent war between Russia and Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Palestine, the price of Bitcoin has also fluctuated.
Although Bitcoin, as a decentralized cryptocurrency, was originally designed to break away from the influence of traditional finance and geopolitical factors, the reality shows that Bitcoin's market performance is increasingly affected by global events.
Especially when war breaks out, Bitcoin's role as a "safe-haven asset" begins to emerge, while also showing a complex relationship with traditional markets.
1. How does war affect the price of Bitcoin?
1. Increased safe-haven demand:
When the international situation is unstable, investors tend to seek safe-haven assets. Traditional safe-haven assets include gold and the US dollar. In recent years, Bitcoin has gradually been regarded by some investors as digital gold with safe-haven properties. During the Russia-Ukraine war and the intensification of the Middle East conflict, some investors chose to buy Bitcoin to avoid the risks of traditional financial markets, thereby driving up the price of Bitcoin.
2. Uncertainty in the global market:
The uncertainty brought by war often leads to volatility in global markets. Markets such as the U.S. and European stocks often experience large fluctuations when geopolitical tensions arise, and participants in the Bitcoin market will become more cautious as a result. This uncertainty may lead to sharp fluctuations in the short-term price of Bitcoin. The situation in the Middle East is particularly complex, and any threat to oil supply will directly affect the global economy, thereby indirectly affecting the cryptocurrency market.
3. Policy and regulatory risks:
The outbreak of war is often accompanied by the strengthening of national security and financial supervision. For example, the Russian-Ukrainian war has led to a series of economic sanctions against Russia, which may include restrictions on the use of cryptocurrencies. In this case, the global policy environment for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin may become more stringent, thereby inhibiting the further development of the market.
2. The correlation between Bitcoin price and traditional market
Recently, the price trend of Bitcoin has become increasingly linked to traditional markets such as the U.S. stock market. There is a profound market logic behind this:
1. Influence of institutional investors:
As more and more institutional investors enter the cryptocurrency market, they often view Bitcoin as a high-risk asset similar to technology stocks. This means that when these institutions adjust their positions in the U.S. stock market, they tend to adjust their positions in the cryptocurrency market at the same time. This synchronization operation has led to the gradual convergence of the price trends of Bitcoin and U.S. stocks.
2. Transmission of market sentiment:
Major events such as wars can quickly affect the sentiment of global investors. When U.S. stocks fall due to geopolitical risks, investors in the Bitcoin market may also be affected, resulting in similar selling behavior, causing prices to fall simultaneously. Conversely, when market expectations of risks are alleviated, funds may flow back into the Bitcoin and U.S. stock markets, driving prices up.
3. Cross-market arbitrage and hedging:
Some investors use the price correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets to conduct cross-market arbitrage and hedging operations. When events such as wars trigger market volatility, arbitrageurs may quickly move funds between Bitcoin and traditional markets, further strengthening the linkage between the two.
During wartime, market sentiment tends to become extreme. Contrarian investors need to be wary of excessive optimism or pessimism in market sentiment and do the opposite when sentiment reaches an extreme, such as reducing holdings when the market is overly optimistic and gradually increasing holdings when the market is panicking.
