Today, while lying in a massage chair, I listened to a program called "A Small Universe". The program was about why young Japanese people are unwilling to fall in love and why there is a "sexual depression". Because a massage chair default treatment is 20 minutes, I only listened to the first 20 minutes.
The general content is that 30 years ago, 2/3 of Japanese young men and women were in love, and 1/3 were single. Now it is the other way around, 1/3 are in love, and 2/3 are single. This trend is also spreading in China. The proportion of young people aged 18-29 in love is much lower than that of their parents. As for the specific reasons, almost half of them do not want to date because it is troublesome, and nearly 1/3 of them think dating is expensive and they cannot afford it.
Hearing this connected with an insight I had earlier. I realized very early on that dating is actually a form of consumer entertainment.
Thirty years ago, society was dull and boring, with few entertainment options, so young people were willing to invest more resources in entertainment. Today, social entertainment content is exploding. A person can watch short videos, cool dramas, erotic online articles, various interest communities, play mobile games, and watch adult movies at home. Most of them can provide positive emotional value and are not very expensive. In comparison, the cost-effectiveness of dating is unbearable.
It takes time, energy, and money, and the experience of contact with the opposite sex is still a blind box, and it is hard to predict whether it will be good or bad. Therefore, the number of young people willing to fall in love is rapidly decreasing. If they are not willing to fall in love, even fewer will get married, and naturally they will not have children.
Many people mentioned high housing prices and high education costs when talking about fertility rates, but the truth is that it may not be that far. Compared to the past, the overly comfortable and exciting single life has made young people too lazy to even talk about love.
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Today's A-share trading volume has further shrunk to only 470 billion, which is a little lower than yesterday. We don't know where the end of the shrinkage is, and maybe it will be even lower tomorrow.
Usually, an extreme reduction in volume is accompanied by an extreme low price. This statement is valid within a relatively large range. Historically, many low points in the medium and long term were caused by a reduction in volume. Therefore, the trend in the past few days is not a bad thing. It may be an effective market behavior to bottom out.
At this time, the national team had better not pull up the CSI 300 to rescue the market. It is unnecessary and will only waste more time. In fact, the previous fight and retreat has laid a thick enough safety cushion. You may not realize that the market has quietly reached 2850. If it falls to this position quickly, most stockholders will cry and howl in fear, but now it is like boiling frogs in warm water, and everyone is calm as usual.
Let the market take its own path in the future. The selling pressure of more than 400 billion yuan will not make much splash, so just wait and see.
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The social financing data for July was released today, and here is a brief summary.
New RMB loans were 260 billion, lower than the expected 450 billion. Social financing was 770.8 billion, also lower than the expected 102 billion. The growth rate of M2 money was 6.3%, slightly lower than expected, and the growth rate of M1 money was -6.6%, which was faster than the -5% in the previous month.
Didn’t we talk about a historical rule before that after M1 bottoms out and rebounds, housing prices will also bottom out and rebound? Now that M1 is so weak, it is difficult to expect housing prices to rebound in the short term.
I won't post the deposit and loan data one by one. Overall, people's willingness to repay their loans is still strong. There are no good investment directions now. Real estate and stocks are both in a bear market, and all kinds of financial management products have already fallen below 3%. At this time, if there is spare money at home, a more rational choice is to repay the mortgage in advance. Reducing leverage on the resident side is an unstoppable trend.
Since last year, the social financing data has been mainly supported by government financing and corporate financing, but at that time many people criticized the financial idleness. As long as there is no money in the data, this year they may focus on squeezing out the water, so the data will not look good.
For ordinary people, the most simple and useful advice in today's society is to avoid asset expansion, deleverage as soon as possible, repay debts early and save more money.
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1. Today, many platforms are hotly discussing that Dong Yuhui earned 600 million yuan in two years at New Oriental, of which 140 million yuan has not yet been received. The source of the news is that the media interviewed insiders, and the core data must have been disclosed by at least senior executives. It may be that New Oriental is dissatisfied with the way Dong Yuhui left, so they handed the knife to the media.
I don't care how much Dong Yuhui earns. Anyway, Li Jiaqi, Wei Ya, and Simba must earn more. I just feel that the profit distribution ratio is very different. In the past two years, New Oriental has earned a total of 1.2 billion yuan from live streaming sales, and Dong Yuhui has taken almost half of it. This is a disaster for public shareholders. The stock price has basically returned to the starting point after a big ups and downs.
There has always been a problem with incubating artists within the company, that is, those who fail to become popular lose money, and those who become popular cannot be retained. The solution in the entertainment industry is to sign long-term contracts, 10 or 20 years. If one of them becomes popular, they can rely on exploitation to share the incubation costs of other failed artists. Of course, this approach often encounters resistance during the implementation process, and there are many cases of falling out and going to court. At that time, South Korea's SM company created a very popular idol group EXO, which had 4 Chinese members (Wu Lu, Zhang Huang). As a result, after becoming popular, all 4 of them ran back to China to make money.
Mature industries like these cannot avoid this, let alone companies like New Oriental that have just started to do live streaming. Generally speaking, this is not a good business (for small and medium shareholders).
2. In the conversation between Trump and Musk, it was mentioned that Trump would go back to the province where he was assassinated in October to give a speech. Trump would close the Ministry of Education and delegate power to the states. It was also mentioned that more high-speed railways would be built and oil and gas would be developed to reduce inflation in American society. Musk mentioned that he was willing to help the US government's spending committee to reduce government spending. It is well known that Musk is best at cutting costs.
According to the latest presidential predictions, Harris leads with 52%.
3. Shell Holdings grew against the trend in the second quarter, with revenue increasing by 20% and profit increasing by 46%. Shell is Lianjia. Although their first-hand housing agency sales were not good in the second quarter, the second-hand housing business grew by 25%. In addition, the rental business was booming, up by +167%. In the second quarter, many cities introduced stimulus policies, and the transaction volume rebounded. For intermediaries, it is a good thing to have transactions, and the decline in unit prices has little impact on them.
That's all.
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