A fan friend commented in the comment area, saying that many bloggers are saying that the bear market has started, and asked me what I think!
Let me briefly talk about my humble opinion.
In my opinion, the current market of #BTC☀ , the short-term amplitude, and liquidity do have a bit of a bear market flavor, but it is far from the point of a bear market.
In a real bear market, the intraday amplitude is 300-500 points, and the market has no new narratives or new trends for the time being.
The market is in a state of shock and decline most of the time, with occasional breakthroughs, and the fluctuations caused by sensitive economic data are only about 1,000 points.
In the cottage industry, the monster currency occasionally surges, attracting a large number of contract trading positions to accumulate, etc.
To sum up, a decline is not a real bear market, but once the market falls, collective silence, and loss of hope for the future, it is really the rhythm of a bear market.
At present, although the intraday amplitude is indeed weak, it has not reached a small amplitude of only 300-500 points. The market still expects a rate cut in September, and even looks forward to continuous rate cuts and QE after the rate cut.
Negative emotions are also waiting for the expectation of a big economic recession.
Although the crypto market lacks an independent narrative for the time being, in terms of macroeconomic sentiment, whether it is a correction after the initial rate cut or the hope of water release after the continuous rate cut, it is exciting. Traders in this market still have good hopes for the next few months, whether it is a decline or an increase.
So, although the amplitude is reduced, trading is slowed down, and fluctuations are not frequent, I still don’t think that a bear market has begun!
PS: Of course, although it is not a bear market, it is still not advisable to hold a heavy position in the spot in hand, otherwise short-term floating losses are inevitable, and there is a possibility of a wave of correction after the initial rate cut.
Again, the short positions that predict a 10% correction in the US stock market in the next 30 days are three times the long positions. Although this does not necessarily mean that there will be a correction, it at least shows that the current market has certain expectations for a correction.
