Historically, the number of short-term coin holders on the BTC chain has experienced two major surges during the bull market cycle (Figure 1).

In the bull market transition between these two major surges, the number of short-term coin holders on the BTC chain tends to decline (Figure 2). The indicator is currently in a downward trend.

It is worth mentioning that the halving of BTC mining output in history occurred during the bull market transition (Figure 3).

The upper indicator in the figure is the BTC price, and the lower indicator is the number of short-term coin holders on the BTC chain (Note: BTC that has moved on the chain within 155 days is called short-term coin holders).