On Tuesday (August 13), Bitcoin rebounded to $59,500. Although tensions over Iran's large-scale direct attack on Israel as early as this week have led to more funds flowing back to traditional safe-haven assets such as the US dollar index and gold, California Congressman Ro Khanna revealed that US President Biden's administration may introduce a major cryptocurrency regulatory roadmap in the coming weeks.
Ro Khanna, who hosted a meeting of crypto industry figures and US Democratic leaders last Thursday, said: "On July 10, I hosted a roundtable with the White House and cryptocurrency industry leaders because I believe it is critical for the United States to lead in technology and innovation, and this industry is the combination of both."
He continued: “The leaders who participated in that conversation, including Mark Cuban, Chris Larsen, Brad Garlinghouse, Anthony Scaramucci, Paul Grewal, Hayden Adams, Mike Novogratz, Denelle Dixon, Mike Brock, and leaders from Krakenf, Circle, Paxos, Anchorage, Pantera Capital, a16z, Paradigm, Electric Capital, Blockchain Capital, DCG, Blockchain Association, and Crypto Council for Innovation, all reaffirmed this belief, and it was a great meeting.”
He wrote in the post: "I am grateful for the participation and thoughtful exchanges from Anita Dunn in her personal capacity, as well as Kirsten Gillibrand and Joe Neguse. We also held a smaller meeting last week with members of President Biden and Vice President Harris' team and the U.S. Treasury Department. It was a vibrant dialogue and positive exchange. There are many frustrations in the industry. These people are focused on innovating and creating jobs in the United States. Without clear boundaries or regulation, this already difficult task will be made even harder. I thank the administration for taking the time to listen and understand this."
When it comes to future actions, Ro offered a surprising news: “I hope that as a result of these meetings, this administration (Biden administration) will issue a positive statement in the coming weeks with a road map that shows the path toward reasonable regulation. This will enable these companies to comply with national laws, innovate in the United States, create millions of jobs, and ensure that this becomes a bipartisan issue. This technology is critical to winning the 21st century and the digital economy. I will still do my best to ensure that we do it right and win the future.”
In addition to the positive signal that the US government will launch "major changes" in regulation, Bitcoin whales have also begun to take action.
According to Bitcoin.com, Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), a well-known US mining company and Bitcoin whale, is launching a plan to issue $250 million worth of convertible senior notes with a maturity date of 2031. The move is aimed at qualified institutional buyers and aims to raise funds for corporate investment and purchase of more Bitcoin.
The Company will privately offer $250 million of convertible senior notes pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933. The notes are unsecured senior debt and will mature on September 1, 2031. Interest payments will be payable semi-annually beginning on March 1, 2025.
MARA mentioned that initial purchasers have the opportunity to receive an additional $37.5 million of notes within 13 days of the original issuance date. The publicly traded bitcoin mining company retains the option to redeem the notes for cash on or after September 6, 2028, subject to certain conditions. The private placement is in line with MARA's "full HODL" (long-term holding) strategy announced in late July.
The funds raised will be used for various corporate initiatives, such as purchasing more Bitcoin, fueling expansion efforts and repaying existing debt. The notes are convertible into cash, MARA common stock or both, at the company's option. MARA noted that the conversion option will be restricted until March 1, 2031, with greater flexibility introduced as the maturity date approaches.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Cryptocurrency trader Tardigrad explained that Bitcoin is moving within a descending expanding triangle, referring to Bitcoin’s year-to-date price action on the two-week chart timeframe, which has formed a descending expanding wedge.
A falling expanding wedge is a technical chart pattern that appears during a downtrend and is characterized by two diverging lines connecting a series of lower highs and lower lows. A decisive breakout above the wedge resistance level confirms an upside breakout.
“This is the same pattern that Bitcoin has been behaving in 2019-2020,” he declared.
When the Bitcoin price broke out of this pattern in 2020, it rallied 580% to reach its 2021 all-time high of around $69,000. “The breakout of this pattern took the Bitcoin price from close to $10,000 to close to $70,000.”
In the week ending August 9, Bitcoin price rebounded strongly from the support line of the current chart pattern at around $53,500. If the pattern continues as shown by the Trader Tardigrade model, it will break through the key resistance barrier of $69,000, confirming a bullish breakout.
Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland also observed that Bitcoin formed a similar pattern to "the fourth quarter of 2023, and patterns in election years (2012, 2016, 2020)." Hyland explained that in each of these years, Bitcoin "found a bottom" before entering the fourth quarter and then began a sustained uptrend.
Therefore, Hyland believes that the recent drop in Bitcoin prices below $50,000 marks the bottom of Bitcoin's current cycle.
In an early post, he shared a chart showing that last week’s candle had the longest and lowest lower shadow, marking a possible bottom for the pioneer cryptocurrency.
Roman, an independent trader, called Bitcoin’s strong close last week and a bullish divergence, adding that it’s “only a matter of time” before prices start to rise sustainably.
The Fear & Greed Index shows that despite these positive outlooks, buyers are less interested in the cryptocurrency market than during the FTX crash. The index currently has an "extreme fear" score of 25, a significant drop from its "fear" score of 39 a day ago.
Meanwhile, some traders expect Bitcoin’s price to remain stagnant in the short term, but they don’t necessarily see this as a bearish sign.
“Overall, prices are still consolidating above all-time highs. LTF breaking below support could trap the market before prices move higher again,” added independent trader Mags.
“Bitcoin will see limited acceptance over the next few days. Bitcoin has pulled back from the midpoint of the channel and is back to key support,” said cryptocurrency trader Daan Crypto Traders. “A higher low needs to be formed here, otherwise bulls will be in trouble.”
