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Macro News

1. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of August 12, 2024, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 6060.83 points, down 1.6% from the previous period.

2. An article published on the official account of Industrial Bank Research, a member institution of Industrial Bank, said that there were market rumors that the Jiangsu Provincial Federation of Banks notified Jiangsu Rural Commercial Bank to ban treasury bond trading, and some securities firms’ proprietary trading and asset management were also guided. In response, 21 Finance contacted the investor relations departments of Sunong Bank and Jiangyin Bank. A person from Sunong Bank told the reporter that they had not received any news. “We have not received this instruction yet.” A person from Jiangyin Bank also said, “We will confirm with the peer department later.”

Global futures market changes

1. Domestic commodity futures closed mixed at night trading. Most energy and chemical products rose, with crude oil up 3.61%, LPG up 1.89%, low sulfur fuel oil up 1.87%, butadiene rubber up 1.64%, No. 20 rubber up 1.6%, fuel oil up 1.54%, asphalt up 1.18%, glass down 1.62%, soda ash down 1.07%. Most black products fell, coke down 1.78%, iron ore up 1.02%. Most base metals closed up, Shanghai copper up 1.7%, Shanghai zinc up 1.11%, Shanghai lead up 1.06%, alumina up 1.01%. Shanghai gold up 1.59%, Shanghai silver up 1.85%.

2. International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 1.62% to $2,513.4 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.67% to $28.05 per ounce.

3. International oil prices rose across the board, with the September contract of U.S. crude oil rising 3.67% to $79.66 per barrel, and the October contract of Brent crude oil rising 2.8% to $81.89 per barrel.

4. Most of the base metals in London closed higher, with LME copper futures up 1.82% to $9,028/ton, LME zinc futures up 0.46% to $2,749/ton, LME nickel futures up 0.96% to $16,305/ton, LME aluminum futures up 0.33% to $2,309/ton, LME tin futures up 0.75% to $31,540/ton and LME lead futures down 0.27% to $2,032.5/ton.

5. The main contracts of agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed with mixed gains and losses, with soybean futures down 1.45% to 988 cents per bushel; corn futures up 1.71% to 401.75 cents per bushel, and wheat futures down 1.15% to 536.25 cents per bushel.

Black hot news

1. From August 5 to August 11, 2024, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24.433 million tons, a decrease of 926,000 tons from the previous month. Australia's shipments were 16.390 million tons, a decrease of 1.713 million tons from the previous month, of which Australia's shipments to China were 14.138 million tons, a decrease of 1.064 million tons from the previous month. Brazil's shipments were 8.044 million tons, an increase of 787,000 tons from the previous month. The total global iron ore shipments for this period were 29.647 million tons, a decrease of 1.043 million tons from the previous month.

2. From August 5 to August 11, the total volume of cargo arriving at 47 ports in China was 24.293 million tons, a decrease of 3.758 million tons from the previous month; the total volume of cargo arriving at 45 ports in China was 23.547 million tons, a decrease of 2.560 million tons from the previous month; the total volume of cargo arriving at the six northern ports was 11.984 million tons, a decrease of 1.811 million tons from the previous month.

3. On the afternoon of August 12, Baowu Chairman Hu Wangming met with visiting Rio Tinto Group Chairman Bao Daming and his delegation at Baowu Building. Hu Wangming expressed his gratitude to Rio Tinto for its long-term support for Baowu's development. He said that Baowu and Rio Tinto have a long history of cooperation, and the two sides have established a deep cooperative relationship in many fields such as iron ore supply, mining project investment, and green and low-carbon development.

Hot news on agricultural products

1. According to the MPOB data, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in July was 1,733,219 tons, a decrease of 5.35% from the previous month, lower than the Reuters forecast of 1.808 million tons and the Bloomberg forecast of 1.85 million tons. This is the first decrease in four consecutive months. Malaysia's palm oil production in July was 1,840,999 tons, a month-on-month increase of 13.97%, higher than the Bloomberg forecast of 1.83 million tons and the Reuters forecast of 1.82 million tons.

2. According to monitoring, from August 1 to 9, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 2.55 million tons. Under pressure from the concentrated arrival of soybeans at ports, it is expected that the operating rate of oil mills will remain high in the remaining three weeks of August, with an average weekly soybean crushing volume of about 2.1 million tons. The total soybean crushing volume of oil mills in August is expected to be about 9 million tons, compared with 9.15 million tons in the same period last year and an average of 8.48 million tons in the past three years.

3. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, it is estimated this month that China’s soybean imports in 2023/2024 will be 98.37 million tons, an increase of 2.27 million tons from the previous month’s estimate. The main reason is that international soybean prices continue to fall and import costs have significantly reduced, attracting Domestic oil mills increased purchases; crushing consumption was 96.15 million tons, 350,000 tons higher than the previous month's estimate, mainly due to the recent steady improvement in domestic pig breeding profits and soybean crushing volume higher than previously expected; imported soybeans after CIF tax The average price range is 4,400-4,600 yuan per ton, which is 200 yuan lower than the estimated range last month.

4. Data released by the Cotton Association of India (CAI) showed that the country's cotton exports in the 2023/2024 crop year are estimated to be about 2.8 million bales. In the 2022/2023 crop year, the country's cotton exports were 1.55 million bales. The total cotton supply by the end of June 2024 is estimated to be 36.3 million bales, with imports of 1.64 million bales and opening stocks of 2.89 million bales.

5. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, as of August 7, the national live pig exit price was 20.32 yuan/kg, up 4.10% from July 31; the corn price in major wholesale markets was 2.46 yuan/kg, down 0.81% from July 31; the pig-to-grain price ratio was 8.26, up 4.96% from July 31.

6. According to foreign media reports, the Argentine government on Monday ordered two oilseed workers' unions to suspend their strike for 15 days, which has paralyzed the country's main grain port.

7. RHB Research predicts that the long-term price of crude palm oil will be between RM3,000 and RM3,500 per tonne, driven by rising costs and growing demand. The company also mentioned that given the current rising cost environment, crude palm oil prices are not expected to be lower than other oils in the medium term.

8. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data showing that private exporters reported sales of 300,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, of which 100,000 tons were for delivery in 2023/2024 and 200,000 tons were for delivery in 2024/2025.

9. According to the data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of the week of August 8, 2024, the export inspection volume of U.S. soybeans was 326,546 tons, which was revised to 266,883 tons in the previous week; the United States shipped 58,055 tons of soybeans to China (mainland). The United States shipped 7,591 tons of soybeans to mainland China in the previous week. The export inspection volume of U.S. soybeans to China accounted for 17.78% of the total export inspection volume that week, which was 2.91% last week.

10. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. soybean production forecast for 2024/2025 in August is 4.589 billion bushels, while the market expectation is 4.469 billion bushels. The U.S. soybean ending stocks forecast for 2024/2025 in August is 560 million bushels, while the market expectation is 465 million bushels. The U.S. soybean yield forecast for 2024/2025 in August is 53.2 bushels/acre, while the market expectation is 52.5 bushels/acre.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. Sources said that Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply to China will fall to about 43 million barrels per day in September, down from August. Two other North Asian refineries will receive all of Saudi Arabia's crude oil quotas in September.

2. Market conditions may force OPEC+ to keep its voluntary production cuts unchanged until the end of the year, CBA analyst Vivek Dhar wrote in a report. Dhar wrote that the downside risks to crude oil demand are increasing due to expected weak demand and U.S. refineries' desire to reduce capacity utilization.

3. OPEC monthly report, global crude oil demand is expected to grow by 2.11 million barrels per day in 2024, compared with 2.25 million barrels per day previously. Global crude oil demand is expected to grow by 1.78 million barrels per day in 2025, compared with 1.85 million barrels per day previously. OPEC's average crude oil production in July 2024 was 26.75 million barrels per day, an increase of 185,000 barrels per day from June.

Metal Hot News

1. Zangge Mining said at a performance briefing on the 12th that the first phase of the Julong Copper Mine expansion project has been approved by relevant departments. The project is expected to achieve trial production in the first quarter of 2026. After reaching full production, the annual ore mining and dressing volume of the first and second phases will exceed 110 million tons, and the annual mineral copper production will reach 300,000-350,000 tons, making it the largest single copper mine in China and the largest single copper mine put into production in the world this century.

2. According to market news, on the evening of August 9, local time in Indonesia, the PT Lestari Smelter Indonesia nickel iron project (4 RKEF production lines) in the IMIP Industrial Park experienced a production failure, and the production line was suspended and is currently undergoing maintenance. According to Mysteel's research, the nickel iron plant of this project accounts for about 2% of Indonesia's production. It is expected that this maintenance will be completed in a week.

Bragging about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!

1. As the center of gravity continues to move downward, how much room is there for lithium carbonate to fall further?

Guotou Anxin Futures analysis pointed out that looking forward to the future, the center of gravity of lithium prices will move downward, and the spot and mine resistance will be weak. If there is no major change in the periphery, the market will generally move towards price reduction until the mine production is reduced. In the short term, we should pay attention to two indicators: one is the spot price difference, which is still within a reasonable range and the speculative sentiment is moderate; the other is the Australian mine price. The stop of the mine price is a necessary signal for the stop of the lithium carbonate price. The price target may be below 70,000 yuan.

2. The negative feedback of the industrial chain continues, will the price of coking coal continue to decline? ​

Everbright Futures analysis pointed out that the number of steel mills in the country is increasing, the industry's overall profits are shrinking, and the active production cuts have increased blast furnace maintenance. The purchasing sentiment of coking coal is not good, and the price is still driven downward. From the supply perspective, Mongolian coal is accelerating inflows, and port inventories are high. At the same time, the profit of Australian coal imports has turned positive, the import window is expected to open, and the supply of imported coal is expected to be sufficient. The intensity of domestic safety supervision will be gradually relaxed, and the domestic coal supply is also expected to increase. If the fourth round of price increases and reductions continue to be implemented in the future, the valuation of upstream coking coal will still be squeezed. In the absence of incremental policies and pessimistic sentiment, it is expected that coking coal will still operate weakly.

Overview of recent important futures data and events

1. At 16:00 on August 13, the IEA released its monthly crude oil market report. The July monthly report showed that the IEA was still marginally pessimistic about demand, and lowered its forecast for global oil demand by 100,000 barrels per day and 200,000 barrels per day for this year and next year respectively. It is worth noting whether the demand forecast will be further lowered this month.

2. At 20:30 on August 14, the United States announced the July unadjusted CPI annual rate, seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate, and unadjusted core CPI annual rate. Analyst Tatiana Darie said that if any of the CPI and retail sales data are disappointing, concerns about a hard landing could easily become the focus again.

3. At 9:20 on August 15, China announced the winning bid rate and operation scale of the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) as of August 15. On July 25, the central bank unexpectedly carried out a 200 billion yuan one-year MLF operation and lowered the winning bid rate to 2.30%. Experts analyzed that from the actual effect, the MLF interest rate has moderately declined, which has better bridged the gap with market interest rates such as interbank certificates of deposit. Pay attention to whether the central bank will lower the winning bid rate again.

4. At 10:00 on August 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on China's industrial added value, retail sales, real estate, fixed asset investment, unemployment rate, etc. in July, and held a press conference on the operation of the national economy. Previously, the National Bureau of Statistics stated that the national economy continued to recover in the first half of the year, and the operation was generally stable and steady. Pay attention to the industrial production data in July.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data