August 12, 2024
According to the latest Bloomberg survey of economists, nearly four-fifths of respondents expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September, and only by 25 basis points. Based on the current performance of several stock markets, the possibility of an emergency rate cut is slim, but due to the Nikkei's plunge, the probability of a rate cut in September is also very high. After all, if a circuit breaker crash occurs in the US stock market, the Fed's rate cut rhythm will be criticized. I have said before that there is often an ultimate crash in the market before and after the rate cut, at least there will be relatively low prices. Is the 8-5 crash the ultimate drop?
This is difficult to judge, but I can give some references from several dimensions. The first is the decline. Judging from the extent of the retracement, it should not be considered a particularly ideal bottom. Large-scale serial liquidations like 8-5 rarely occur, so 1-3 more times is the most ideal, and the bottom price of the big cake, I think it is enough to fill the position at 40,000. The second is time. Generally speaking, the three months before and after the first interest rate cut are the most likely periods for low points to appear, and the probability of one month before and after is the highest. Therefore, if the interest rate is cut in September, then we need to defend the most in October and November. If there is another sharp drop during this period, we will directly fill the position.
In fact, looking at the performance of US and Japanese stocks, they have temporarily emerged from the shadow of the 8-5 plunge, so normally the next step is to go sideways and look for opportunities to break through. However, as I said yesterday, if the market does not have a second retracement during the upward process, there will be a lot of low-priced chips to form selling pressure. If there is no retracement, it will have to be digested through sideways fluctuations. At present, the probability of the second situation is very high.
In the short-term market, I think there will still be a small fluctuation. The certainty of operation at this position is not high, so we can only keep some bargain-hunting chips and wait for a new breakthrough. At present, this wave of rebound trend has been stopped, and it needs to consolidate and accumulate strength before rushing up. This process will be accompanied by a small decline, which is also a necessary process to digest the selling pressure.
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