Last week was thrilling, and this week is another big test!
CPI+ "horrible data" are coming one after another, and the first key watershed of the market is coming.
BTC closed with a positive cross star on the weekly line, and the second daily line is coming. Don't go all in, control your position and go boldly.
1. Last week: artificial over-trading and long-short leverage chains made the direction of the market unclear
1. Last week, against the background of the policy reversal of the yen rate hike and the US dollar rate cut, the large liquidation of yen carry trades was more caused by the excessive behavior of traders, which caused huge fluctuations.
2. After the sudden sell-off caused by the concerns about the risk of a US economic recession caused by the non-agricultural data last week, the leverage chains of the long and short sides of various markets increased the short-term reversal, making the direction of the market unclear.
2. The options market has obvious operations to hedge downside risks, and volatility shows a buy signal
1. The options market data shows that the hedging contract price for the largest ETF hedging the S&P 500 index when it falls 10% in the next 30 days has hit the highest level since October last year, which is twice the price of the hedging contract when it hedges a 10% increase, indicating that the market in the next 30 days still has a large downside risk.
2. From the perspective of volatility, it is currently high, which is a good time to buy. The net position of the Bi market is also rising rapidly, indicating that funds are entering the market to buy at the bottom.
3. The first short-term market watershed this week is coming:
Monday (August 12): Trump accepts a heavy interview with Musk
Wednesday (August 14): U.S. July unadjusted CPI annual rate
Thursday (August 15): U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 10, U.S. July retail sales monthly rate
1. In the conversation between Trump and Musk on Monday, although the probability is small, if the crypto industry is mentioned, it may bring a short-term surge in the currency market
2. The market expects the US CPI to rise by 0.2% month-on-month in July, 0.1% higher than last month, and the year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain at 3.0%. Whether the US stock market and the blue market continue to buy or wait for more economic data, CPI will be an important catalyst.
If the July CPI data meets expectations, it will help ease market volatility; if it is significantly higher or lower, a new round of market chaos and volatility is expected to come again.
4. Market Tone
1. The correlation between the big pie and the macro fundamentals has increased, and market sentiment has a greater impact on the trend.Short-term consolidation, the probability of a new low is low.
