The BTC rate has recovered above $60,000, breaking through EMA 200 and testing EMA 50 of the daily TF. Locally, we expect a correction to the area of $59,335. It is unlikely that there will be significant squeezes below. But if there are, they will not be lower than $57,736.
The long signal from the trend reversal indicator works just as well this time as it did in early May, with the difference that the low was set a day before the first signal. But given the scale of the dump on the market, this was acceptable. And on August 6, we wrote that there might not be a re-low from August 6-7. Since that review and the rate of $55,111, the price has added +13.8%.
Yesterday, the price broke through all the important resistances that we pointed out on August 6 and 7 and which we reminded in yesterday's post, by the close of the daily candle. Let's recall this:
"In case of growth, for a reversal, it is still critically important to consolidate above the volume level of $59,335 and the neighboring EMA 200 of the daily TF. Now there is a downward trend there since July 29, that is, resistance to the exit from the entire dump that has occurred since that date"
There is a breakout of these targets. Now it is important to consolidate. The price is currently locked between EMA 50 and 200 of the daily TF. A breakout in one of the directions will determine further movement.
The candlestick structure on the daily TF remains ascending, with growth potential, maximum, until August 14-16.
At the same time, on the path to further growth there is a resistance pool, from which the sellers' reaction was received:
- the mentioned EMA 50 of the daily TF,
- an upward trend from October 2023 by the shadows of candles (indicated by a dotted line),
- volume level $61,231,
- level 0.5 according to Fibonacci from the high in March to the low in August (rate $61,388).
If these resistances are broken, we can expect another test of the downward trend from March 14 (currently taking place at $70,166).
If we break down the local situation into waves, we believe that after the dump on July 5, the 1st and 2nd waves have already formed, and the growth on August 8-9 is the third wave. We are waiting for the 4th correction wave after it, and it looks like it has already begun. By the way, the four-hour TF gives a signal for correction from the trend reversal indicator. Let us repeat, to maintain the structure, it must lower the price no lower than $57,736.
We consider the volume level of $65892 as the minimum target for wave 5. A correction is likely from there. BUT in general, after the global long squeeze that occurred, any correction now is more likely a reason to buy.
There is an interesting situation on the BTC futures chart on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. There, the growth on August 8-9 closed two gaps from July-August, the ranges of $57,880-60,840 and $59,000-62,540. But the growth was so active that a new, albeit minimal, gap of $59,850-60,590 formed. It will probably be closed today, just when the chart will undergo a correction in wave 4.