August 9, 2024
The market trend is strong, and Bitcoin has almost reversed. The price difference between high and low points exceeds 10,000 US dollars. This fluctuation is not to mention copycats. As long as you add leverage to play contracts, the winning rate is very low. In terms of news, today's rise may be affected by Russia's friendly policies. Putin signed a law legalizing cryptocurrency mining in Russia, saying that he wanted to seize the opportunity of digital currency. However, the most fundamental factor for this wave of market rise should still be the rebound demand itself, because the plunge on August 5 was affected by the black swan plunge in the Japanese stock market.
When the black swan happened, the price of the currency was affected and plummeted. Looking back, it was actually a good time to buy the bottom, but at that time, most people were worried about whether the US stock market would collapse. Frankly speaking, I was definitely panicking when buying the bottom, so I didn’t buy it completely, but the facts once again proved that when the Bitcoin price plummeted by more than 20% in a single day, it was still a good opportunity to buy the bottom. As for why many people did not buy the bottom, in addition to panic, I think another factor is the problem of position management. If too many people are trapped at high positions, the panic will be magnified several times.
What everyone is most concerned about now is whether the market has a second bottom. To add, the so-called second bottom is that the price returns to the low point again to verify the market buying. For example, the bottom of the big cake is 49,000, so if it can return to around 50,000 again, it is considered a second bottom. The second bottom is mainly based on past market phenomena. It is a high probability event, not an absolute event. Therefore, I sold half of my bottom-fishing position this time because I was worried that it would not happen.
However, looking at the market situation, Bitcoin has once again reached above 60,000 US dollars, and funds are obviously rushing to buy, so the possibility of falling back to 50,000 in the short term is very low, but the probability of continuing to fall back is still not small. At present, if Bitcoin can fall back to 55,000, you can consider taking it again. Since the 8-5 plunge was caused by a black swan outside the circle, in the absence of other emergencies, 49,000 will become the stage bottom. It is speculated that the short-term market will be dominated by volatile upward behavior, so wait and see.
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