Will BTC continue to plummet? What will happen next?

Let’s not waste time, let’s talk about the conclusion first, and then the logic.

The conclusion is

(1) There is a 40% probability of a pullback to $50,000.

(2) But after this big pullback, BTC may return to a high level, and many altcoins will be able to achieve a big rebound.

Why may it fall in the short term (within 1-2 weeks)?

(1) Geopolitical conflicts have not yet expanded to the highest point

Iran may pull the trigger at any time, and Hezbollah in Lebanon is still looking for opportunities to attack Israel.

The day before yesterday, Hamas appointed hardliner Sinwar, who will fight Israel to the end.

Therefore, as a risky asset, BTC will not rebound quickly, and may fall again when encountering a major conflict.

(2) Japan’s interest rate hike has reduced BTC buying power

Previously, borrowing at a low interest rate in Japan and then buying high-yield assets elsewhere,

including BTC and cryptocurrencies, was an effective transaction.

Now it doesn’t work, resulting in a decrease in BTC buying power.

(3) Mentougou has not taken further action yet.

Two weeks ago, Mentougou began to transfer small amounts of BTC for testing.

It has not moved since this week, but it will definitely move. When BTC is moved on a large scale, BTC will fall again.